Key Findings
Authored By: D. N. Wear
- Except for a moderate decline in agricultural uses, most States in the South have experienced relatively stable land use distributions between 1945 and 1992. The most notable exception is Florida, where developed land uses have expanded substantially.
- Stability in overall land use distributions masks offsetting shifts into and out of forest cover in many States.
- Urbanization and relative returns to agriculture and timber uses will strongly influence changes in land use during the next 20 years. Urbanization will continue to consume forest land and agricultural land, while rising timber prices will push some agricultural land toward forest uses.
- The South is forecast to lose 12 million forest acres (8 percent) to developed uses between 1992 and 2020. An additional 19 million forest acres are forecast to be converted to developed uses between 2020 and 2040.
- Southern forest losses will likely be concentrated in a few places: (1) the Piedmont and Mountain areas of North Carolina, (2) adjacent Piedmont areas of South Carolina and Georgia, (3) Florida, and (4) the Atlantic and gulf coastal areas. Smaller areas with substantial projected losses include areas surrounding the cities of Nashville, TN, and Birmingham, AL, and the area of northern Virginia between Washington, DC, and Richmond, VA.
- Increased timber prices are forecasted to cause about 10 million acres of agricultural land to be forested between 1992 and 2020. As much as 25 million acres of agricultural land could be forested by the year 2040.
- Much agricultural land may be converted to forest in some parts of the South. In the eastern part of the South, gains are possible on the upper Coastal Plain of Georgia and on the Coastal Plain in an area centered on the boundary between North Carolina and Virginia. The largest area of potential forest gains is on the lower Gulf Coastal Plain and in large portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
- Taken together, these forecasts suggest a western shift in forest area—losses are concentrated in the eastern South, and gains are concentrated in the western South.
- Forecasts of a forest population density index indicate that the potential influence of southern urban areas extends far beyond their cores. This condition has important consequences. As the population increases in a forested area, the ability of the forest to moderate microclimate may be reduced. Availability of land for public recreation is normally reduced, and availability for timber management plummets.
- In some areas, the share of forest cover is relatively high, but forest tracts are highly fragmented. This condition is prevalent in some northern parts of the South, on the Southern Appalachian Piedmont, and in northern Florida. In these areas, marginal changes in the amount of forest cover may have disproportionate impacts on the connectivity of forested habitats.
Encyclopedia ID: p2524
