Information Needs, Tolerance for Risk, and Protection from Risk: The Case of National Predictive Services Customers

Patricia L. Winter and Heidi Bigler-Cole

USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (1) and Pacific Northwest Research Station (2)

For complex situations, such as prediction of fire weather, there is a degree of uncertainty (Derby and Keeney 1981). How that uncertainty is addressed can be tailored to meet information users’ needs and preferences. Involving the users of predictive services in the design of messages, including the types of information delivered, format, and approach to risk, fits with Fischoff’s (1995) recommendation for involving the recipients of risk information in the crafting of the risk message. Johnson’s (2004) research suggests that risk statements should take into account variations in target audiences. Tolerance for risk has been outlined as an essential aspect of understanding management decisions (Gregory and Keeney 2002).

In this paper we describe a study conducted of recipients of risk-related information. We contacted users and potential users of National Predictive Services, including those who might receive services such as briefings, and those who might use their products, such as those offered through the various Geographic Coordination Center websites. Each potential user was a member of the fire management community, including fire management officers, meteorologists, information officers or public affairs personnel, and members of various fire-management teams. These individuals came from Federal, State, and more local fire agencies, though the majority were within Federal agencies. Respondents completed a self-administered survey via a web-based service.

Findings examine the types of information users reported needing, preferred formats for information delivery and likelihood of applying information from Predictive Services in decisions made about fire. Of interest to the risk management/risk communication focus are the reported views on acceptability of risk and tolerance for errors, how risk is viewed and addressed (through the view of Protection Motivation theory), and trust and confidence in the information delivered through Predictive Services. Barriers to utilization of Predictive Services are illuminated.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Patricia L. Winter
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Southwest Research Station
4955 Canyon Crest Drive
Riverside, CA 92507
951-680-1557
pwinter@fs.fed.us