Abstracts of Case Studies

Authored By: A. L. Tomcho

 

Author*Title
Ager, Alan; Finney, MarkAn Actuarial Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk
Appel, D.N.; Camilli, K.S. Assessing Risk of a Destructive Forest Pathogen for Decision Making by Natural Resource Managers:  A Case Study of Oak Wilt at Ft. Hood, TX
Billings, Ronald F.;Smith,  L. Allen; Verma, Shailu; Kouchoukos, Nick; and Heo, JoonDeveloping and Validating a Method for Monitoring and Tracking Changes in Southern Pine Beetle Hazard at the Landscape Level
Billings, Ronald F.; Upton, WillliamA Methodology for Assessing Annual Risk of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks across the Southern Region Using Pheromone Traps
Brenner, J.; Carlton, D.; Mclellan, S.; Dozier, A.; Spencer, T.; Jones, R.; Ralowicz, A.Managing Wildland Fire Risk in Florida
Collins, Curtis A.; Evans, David L.; Londo, H. Alexis; Glass, Patrick A.; Belli, Keith L.Utilizing Remotely Sensed Data and Analytical Techniques in Post-Katrina Mississippi to Develop Storm Damage and Risk Assessment Models
Coulston, John W.; Smith, William D.; Koch, Frank H.; and Sapio, Frank J.Developing National-Scale Surveys for Exotic Pests and Defining Their Reliability
Cook, Stephen; Hruska, RyanConifer-Infesting Adelgids: Pre-Visual Detection for a Genus of Invasive Species of Insects in North American Forests
Downing, Marla C.; Jung, Thomas; Thomas, Vernon; Blaschke, Markus;Tuffly, Michael F.; and Reich, RobinModeling the Introduction and Establishment Risk for Phytophthora Alni in the United States
Ellenwood, Jim;Lazar, Arpad;Hinkley, EverettThe Application of Hyperspectral and other Remote Sensing Technologies for the Monitoring and Assessment of Invasive Species
Evans, DonUsing Historical Imagery to Monitor and Assess Threats over Time
Furniss, Michael J.The Role of Road Network Analysis in Assessing Threats and Planning for Threat Reduction
Grulke, N.E.; Minnich, R.A.; Paine, T.; Dunn, A.; and Chavez, D.Air Pollution Increases Forest Susceptibility to Wildfires in Southern California
Hamilton, Randy; Megown, Kevin; Ellenwood, Jim; Lachinowski, Henry; Maus, PaulAssessing Insect-Induced Tree Mortality Across Large Areas with High-Resolution Aerial Photography in a Multistage Sample
Hatfield, Mark A.; McRoberts, Ronald E.Illustrating Approaches to Uncertainty Estimation or Map-Based Estimation Problems
Hemstrom, Miles A.; Zhou, Xiaoping; Barbour, R. James; MerzenichIntegrating Natural Disturbances and Management Activities to Examine Risks and Opportunities in the Central Oregon Landscape Analysis
Hessburg, Paul F.; Reynolds, Keith M.; Keane, Robert E.; James, Kevin M.; Salter, R. Brion  A Decision Support System for Evaluating Wildland Fire Danger and Prioritizing Vegetation and Fuels Treatments
Hinkley, Everett; Zajkowski, Tom; Schrader-Patton, CharlieDigital Aerial Sketchmapping
Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha; Bossenbroek; Sydnor, David; Schwartz, MarkModeling Potential Movements of a Ash Threat: The Emerald Ash Borer
Juzwik, Jennifer; Cummings-Carlson, Jane; Scanlon, KyokoRisk Analysis and Guidelines for Harvest Activities in Wisconsin Oak Timberlands to Minimize Oak Wilt Threat
Kennedy, Rebecca S.H.; Spies, Thomas A.; Moeur, Melinda; Hemstrom, Miles A.Characterizing the Range and Variability of Pre-Management Era and Future Vegetation to Support Forest Plan Revision, Project-Level Planning, and Implementation in Central Oregon
Kim, Mee-Sook; Klopfenstein, Ned B.; Rippy, Raini C.; Stewart, Jane E.; Zambino, Paul J.; Tirocke, Joanne M.; Thies, Walter G.Fire and Root Disease Interactions in Coniferous Forests of the Inland West: Development of Decision Tools and Guidance for Supporting Healthy-Forest Management  
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.Modeling Current Climate Conditions for Forest Pest Risk Assessment
Krist, Frank J. Jr.A Multi-Criteria Framework for Producing Local, Regional, and National Insect and Disease Risk Maps
Lenihan, James; Drapek, Raymond; Neilson, Ronald; Daly, Christopher; Bachelet, DominiqueMC1 DGVM Seasonal Fire Forecasting for the Coterminous United States
May, FredCascading Threat Model Applications in Conducting Hazard and Risk Assessment for Wildfire and Post-Burn Flash Flood
Minocha, RakeshAssessing Environmental Stress in Forests Using Cellular Markers
Moisen, Gretchen; Czaplewski, Raymond L.; Brewer, Ken; Healy, SeanA National System for Rapid Detection and Assessment of Severe Disturbances in Forestlands
Norman, Steven P.; Jacobson, Sandra; Damiani, Christine; Lee, Danny C. Assessing Risks to Multiple Resources Affected by Wildfire and Fuels Treatment using an Integrated Probabilistic Framework
Overton, KerryAn Aquatic Multi-Scale Assessment and Planning “Framework”
Perry, Thomas; Wilson Jeremy S.Vulnerability to Wind Damage in Maine Forests
Pierce, Ken; Brewer, Ken; Ohmann, JanetModerate Resolution Data and Gradient Nearest Neighbor Imputation for Regional-National Risk Assessment
Pontius, Jennifer; Hallet, Richard; Martin, Mary; Plourde, LucieA Landscape Scale GIS Tool to Assess Eastern Hemlock Susceptibility to Hemlock Wooly Adelgid Infestation
Prasodjo, Darmawan; Gan, Jianbang; McCarl, Bruce A.Threat Assessment Using an Integrative Approach of Probabilistic Risk Modeling and Stochastic Programming with an Application to Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks
Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Ager, Alan A.; McHugh, Charles; Hayes, Jane L.; Brillinger, David R.Probabilistic Risk Models for Multiple Disturbances: An Example of Bark Beetles and Wildfire
Richardson, Bryce, A.; Warwell, Marcus V.; Kim, Mee-Sook; Klopfenstein, Ned B.; Zambino, Paul J.; McDonald, Geral I.Integration of Population Genetic Structure and Climate Modeling: Sustaining Genetic Resources through Evaluation of Projected Threats
Rogers, Jack D.; Klopfenstein, Ned B.; Carris, Lori M.; Kim, Mee-Sook; Zambino, Paul J.; Rippy, Raini C.; Goetz, John R. III; Hessburg, Paul F. Nonpathogenic Fungi: Natural Regulators in Forest Ecosystems?
Rowland, Mary M.; Suring, Lowell H.; Wisdom, Michael J.Assessment of Habitat Threats to Shrublands in the Great Basin: A Case Study
Schwind, Brian; Quayle; Brewer, Ken; Eidenshink, JeffEstablishing a Nationwide Baseline of Historical Burn Severity Data to Support Monitoring of Trends in Wildfire Effects and National Fire Policies
Stein, Susan M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.Threats to Private Forest Land in the USA
Stolte, Kenneth W.Evaluating Risk to Forest Health and Sustainability with the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators
Stone, Jeffrey K.; Coop, Leonard B.; Manter, Daniel K. A Spatial Model for Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Swiss Needle Cast Disease Severity in the Pacific Northwest
Theobald, David M.; Wade, Alisa; Wilcox, GrantAnalyzing Risks to Protected Areas in Colorado Using the Human Modification Framework
Warwell, Marcus V.; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Crookston, Nicolas L.Modeling Contemporary Climate Profiles and Predicting their Response to Global Warming for Several Western Forest Species with Small Geographic Distributions
Winter, Patricia L.; Bigler-Cole, HeidiInformation Needs, Tolerance for Risk, and Protection from Risk: The Case of National Predictive Services Customers
Winter, Patricia L.; Cvetkovich, George T.Perceptions, Impacts, Actions, Shared Values and Trust: The Experience of Community Residents in a Fire-Prone Ecosystem
Wurtz, Tricia L.; Macander, Matt; Spellman, Blaine T.Spread of an Invasive Plant on Alaska’s Roads and River Networks: A Path Analysis

* Corresponding author in bold
 

Encyclopedia ID: p25

A Decision Support System for Evaluating Wildland Fire Danger and Prioritizing Vegetation and Fuels Treatments

Authored By: P. F. Hessburg, K. M. Reynolds, R. E. Keane, K. M. James, R. B. Salter

Paul F. Hessburg, Keith M. Reynolds, Robert E. Keane, Kevin M. James and R. Brion Salter

USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station (1,2,4,5) and Rocky Mountain Research Station (3)

Wildland fuels have been accumulating in western forests of the United States (US) for at least the past 70 years due to 20th century settlement and management activities, and changing climatic conditions. As demonstrated by recent wildland fires, additional fuels are contributing to more intense fire behavior and increasing fire resistance to containment and control. Consequently, property and natural resources have been destroyed, costs of fire management have escalated, fire-dependent forest and rangeland ecosystems have deteriorated, and risks to human life and property continue to escalate.

Historically, fires of varying size, frequency, and intensity maintained spatial patterns of forest vegetation, as well as temporal variation in those patterns. In fact, many agents interacted to shape vegetation patterns and their spatio-temporal variation, including forest insect outbreaks, forest diseases, fires, weather and longer term climate events, and intentional aboriginal burning. The result was characteristic landscape patterns and variation in forest structural attributes, species composition, and habitats that resonated with the dominant disturbance processes.

Circumstances are quite different today. Human and climatic influences have created anomalous vegetation patterns, and these patterns support fire, insect, and disease processes that display uncharacteristic duration, spatial extent, and intensity. In this paper, we present a decision-support system for evaluating existing vegetation and fuel conditions and potential fire impacts, and for prioritizing subwatersheds for vegetation and fuel treatment. Fire danger is evaluated as a function of three primary topics: fire vulnerability, potential wildfire severity, and risk of ignition. Each primary topic has secondary topics under which data are evaluated. We demonstrate use of the application with an example from the Rocky Mountain region in the State of Utah (map zone 16), which represents a planning area of about 4.8 million ha and encompasses 575 complete subwatersheds. We also discuss considerations for extending the application to support strategic planning at national (that is, across all 66 map zones of the US), regional (within a map zone or region), and local (within individual subwatersheds of a map zone or region) scales.

Wednesday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

Paul F. Hessburg
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
1133 N. Western Avenue
Wenatchee, WA 98801
phessburg@fs.fed.us.

 

Encyclopedia ID: p98

Analyzing Risks to Protected Areas in Colorado Using the Human Modification Framework

Authored By: D. M. Theobald, A. Wade, G. Wilcox

David M. Theobald, Alisa Wade, and Grant Wilcox

Colorado State University Natural Resource Ecology Lab

A framework that organizes natural and protected areas is often used to help understand the potential risks to natural areas and aspects of their ecological and human dimensions. The spatial (or landscape) context of these dynamics is also a critical, but rarely considered, factor. Current frameworks commonly used include the USGS GAP stewardship coding scheme, the IUCN Protected Area Management Categories, and the American Planning Association Land-based Classification Standards. The GAP and IUCN framework are coarse classifications (4-6 categories), while the APA focuses primarily on private land uses, but the landscape context remains ignored. To address these limitations, we extended the human modification framework to develop a comprehensive, hierarchical classification based on two dimensions: the degree to which natural processes are free or controlled, and the degree to which landscape patterns are natural or artificial. Three primary factors or activities are used to establish the position of a parcel of land along the process or pattern gradient: urban/built-up, recreation, and production/extraction. Common surrogate data and metrics for each of these factors have been developed. We illustrate our risk analysis by presenting results for Colorado produced using the Colorado Ownership, Management, and Protection spatial dataset, which contains federal, state, local, and land trust data on protected areas.

Land Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

David M. Theobald
Nautral Resource Ecology Lab
Colorado State University
1231 East Drive
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499
davet@nrel.colostate.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p89

Assessing Environmental Stress in Forests Using Cellular Markers

Authored By:

Minocha, Rakesh

USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station

Our focus is to identify metabolites or “cellular markers” that predict the impact of environmental pollution as well as biotic factors on health of forests by examining the foliage of visually asymptomatic trees. Our goal is to relate these markers to long term forest productivity. Environmental issues of concern include acidic deposition (especially N deposition) and heavy metals. Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) may cause forest decline or enhance forest productivity depending on the initial N status of soils, and the rate and duration of N deposition. Heavy metals (Hg, Cd, Zn, Pb, and Cu) are toxic to plants and may decrease productivity when accumulated beyond threshold levels in soils. Our research has identified useful markers like putrescine (an aliphatic diamine), arginine (a common amino acid), and phytochelatins (metabolites produced by cells in response to heavy metal exposure) as cellular indicators. Foliar putrescine is a reliable and easily measurable marker of stress in visually healthy trees. It has also been shown to ameliorate some of the effects of soil Ca deficiency as its concentrations increase in response to decreasing soil Ca. Foliar putrescine was shown to be present in higher levels in hemlock trees that were resistant to hemlock wooly adelgid compared to the susceptible trees.  Free amino acids, especially arginine, also increase in response to chronic N input at several hardwood and conifer sites and can indicate too much N availability or N saturation.  In a study on the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, these changes were also accompanied by lower site productivity in red pine. In another project with red spruce, we observed that phytochelatins and their precursor accumulate in response to heavy metal exposure.

Land Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Northeastern Research Station
P. O. Box 640
271 Mast Road
Durham, NH 03824 USA
603-868-7622
rminocha@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p105

Assessing Insect-Induced Tree Mortality Across Large Areas with High-Resolution Aerial Photography in a Multistage Sample

Authored By: R. Hamilton, K. Megown, J. Ellenwood, H. Lachowski, P. Maus

Randy Hamilton, Kevin Megown, Jim Ellenwood, Henry Lachowski, and Paul Maus

USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (1, 2, 4, 5) and Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (3)

In recent years, unprecedented tree mortality has occurred throughout the National Forests due to insect infestations and disease outbreaks. The magnitude and extent of mortality, coupled with the lack of routine monitoring in some areas, has made it difficult to assess the damage and associated ecological impact and fire hazard in a timely and cost effective manner. To aid forest managers in assessing the damage, a cost effective multistage sampling method, using high-resolution digital aerial photography, was developed to estimate overall mortality across large areas. The method was tested within a 332,000-acre piñon/juniper woodland west of Flagstaff, Arizona, within the Kaibab National Forest. Severe piñon pine mortality has occurred in this area in recent years. Piñon mortality was assessed (sampled) using high-resolution digital aerial photographs within vegetation-type and percent-cover strata. The sample revealed that dead trees covered 7±0.3% of the study area. As a percentage of total tree cover, 20±0.5% mortality had occurred. The cost to obtain this estimate was approximately $0.04 per acre. A second study area covering the entire subalpine fir/Engelmann spruce cover type of the Bighorn National Forest, west of Sheridan, Wyoming, is currently under investigation.

Monitoring Methods Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Randy Hamilton
USDA Forest Service
Remote Sensing Applications Center
2222 West 2300 South
Salt Lake City, UT  84119
801-975-3845
randyhamilton@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p82

Assessing Risk of a Destructive Forest Pathogen for Decision Making by Natural Resource Managers: A Case Study of Oak Wilt at Ft. Hood, TX

Authored By: D. N. Appel, K. Camilli

D.N. Appel and K.S. Camilli

Texas A&M University Department of Plant Pathology and Microbiology and Texas Forest Service Forest Resource Development

     The oak wilt fungus, Ceratocystis fagacearum Bretz Hunt, has been described as the most dangerous pathogen to threaten forests in North America.  Oak wilt has operated as a biotic disturbance in different forest ecosystems distributed throughout 22 states at least since 1941. There are still regions in the U.S. dominated by susceptible oaks where it has yet to occur.  Six decades of research have elucidated key components of the oak wilt disease cycle. Sources of inoculum, infection courts, and vector relationships are all well described and important to the disease process.  Our understanding of these components forms the basis of comprehensive efforts to manage the disease.  However, oak wilt is still causing epidemic losses of trees, particularly in the oak savannahs of central Texas. Further research is needed to bring efficiency and consistency to the deployment of the currently available management protocols.  Tools are also needed to quantify losses and to predict the potential impact of the disease.  In order to achieve these objectives, there is a need to better understand the underlying processes that drive an oak wilt epidemic.

     Our goal is to provide natural resource managers with the information needed to contend with oak wilt.  In central Texas, a project was initiated on the Ft. Hood military post where oak wilt is present in epidemic proportions.   Ft. Hood is comprised of 88,221 hectares consisting largely of oak-juniper woodlands and grassland savannahs.  Natural resource management objectives at Ft. Hood often conflict.  For example, the landscape must be maximized for military training operations while enhancing habitat for rare and endangered species.  Managers at Ft. Hood need information on the incidence of oak wilt, the predicted impact of the disease on oak resources, and how and when the disease should be controlled.  We have incorporated various remote sensing sources, geographic information systems (GIS), and geostatistical analyses in order to improve our understanding of the disease and the decision making process.  IKONOS, Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), and SPOT satellite imagery have been acquired in various phases of the project to quantify and map disease incidence.  Extensive ground surveys have included ground diagnosis of randomized mortality centers as photo-interpreted on satellite imagery, systematic fixed-plot sampling, and   randomized prism plots.  The collected data were incorporated into the GIS ArcView®.  Exploratory statistical analyses, spatial autocorrelation, and binary classification trees were used to extract the information needed to determine underlying influences on the spread of the pathogen, create surface maps, and predict distribution of the disease.  These analyses have produced critical details concerning the patterns and distribution of oak wilt.  For example, the influence of host species composition on both oak wilt incidence and the nesting habits of the endangered Golden Cheeked Warbler has been clarified.  Important variables for predicting oak wilt distribution were identified.  The analyses have also provided clues as to the ecological role of oak wilt in the changing central Texas oak woodlands.  In cooperation with the Environmental Resources Group at Ft. Hood and the Nature Conservancy at Ft. Hood, oak wilt management tools have been implemented and are being monitored for their success in reducing losses and sustaining long term land use objectives.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

David Appel
Department of Plant Pathology and Microbiology
Texas A&M University
College Station, TX 77843
979-845-8273
appel@ag.tamu.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p72

Assessing Risks to Multiple Resources Affected by Wildfire and Fuels Treatment using an Integrated Probabilistic Framework

Authored By: S. P. Norman, S. L. Jacobson, C. Damiani, D. C. Lee

Steven P. Norman, Sandra Jacobson, Christine Damiani, and Danny C. Lee

USDA Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (1,4) and Pacific Southwest Research Station (2-3)

The tradeoffs that surround forest management are inherently complex, often involving multiple temporal and spatial scales. For example, conflicts may result when fuel treatments are designed to mediate long-term fuel hazards, but activities could impair sensitive aquatic habitat or degrade wildlife habitat in the short term. This complexity makes it hard for managers to describe and communicate the conditional nature of risk and to justify planned activities to stakeholders. In addition, our understanding of how proposed activities will affect resources of concern is often limited due to informational shortcomings and imprecise models. To be robust and transparent, a risk assessment framework needs to reveal these limitations while quantifying the probable outcomes of project effects to multiple resources of concern. In this paper, we describe the effects of fuel treatments using such a planning framework, called CRAFT (Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools). CRAFT provides a platform from which diverse ancillary models and other relevant information can be transparently integrated and evaluated.

We conducted our case study in a portion of the Hayfork Adaptive Management Area of the Shasta-Trinity National Forest, California. As is typical of other mixed-conifer forests of California, this area has experienced decades of fire suppression and severe fire effects are increasingly likely. With Forest managers, we identified a range of measurable objectives involving the Wildland Urban Interface, fire behavior, fire effects and sensitive wildlife. We then developed a conceptual model describing how components of the system inter-relate. From this, we developed a probabilistic framework, using Bayesian Belief Networks, in which we employed existing fire and vegetation models to address the effects of fuel treatments on various resources for different fire weather and management scenarios. Our model provides decision makers and stakeholders with insight into the conditional probability that efforts conducted to reduce fire-related risks will be successful.

Wednesday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

Steven P. Norman
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Southwest Research Station
1700 Bayview Drive
Arcata, CA 95521-6013
stevenorman@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p102

Assessment of Habitat Threats to Shrublands in the Great Basin: A Case Study

Authored By: M. M. Rowland, L. H. Suring, M. J. Wisdom

Mary M. Rowland, Lowell H. Suring, and Michael J. Wisdom

USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station (1,3) and Terrestrial Wildlife Ecology Unit (2)

The sagebrush ecosystem is one of the most imperiled in the USA.  In the Great Basin Ecoregion and elsewhere, catastrophic wildland fires often are followed by the invasion of cheatgrass, a process that has eliminated or altered millions of hectares of sagebrush and other native shrublands.  Sagebrush communities in the Great Basin also are threatened by displacement from encroaching pinyon-juniper woodlands.  Despite these losses, the Great Basin retains some of the largest remaining expanses of sagebrush in the nation, most of which is federally managed.  Concomitant with threats to native vegetation are declining habitats and populations of sagebrush-associated species.  To address these issues, we conducted a regional assessment of habitat threats for 40 sagebrush-associated vertebrates of conservation concern in the Great Basin.  Our goals were to (1) evaluate habitat conditions for species of concern for conservation planning and management, (2) demonstrate the application of newly developed methods of regional assessment of threats in arid shrubland communities, and (3) describe implications of results for management.  Our analyses suggested that >55% (≈4.8 million ha) of sagebrush in the Great Basin is at moderate or high risk of being displaced by cheatgrass over the next 30 years.  Moreover, cheatgrass threatens other shrubland communities, particularly salt desert scrub (96%, or ≈7.1 million ha at moderate or high risk).  Substantial areas of sagebrush (41%; ≈2.0 million ha) also were predicted to be at moderate or high risk of displacement by pinyon-juniper woodlands in the eastern Great Basin.  Of the 40 vertebrate species we considered, potential habitat loss to cheatgrass could exceed 65% (≈8 million ha) for some species.  Maintenance and restoration of native shrublands in the Great Basin will require both active and passive management to mitigate the formidable threats posed by cheatgrass and pinyon-juniper woodlands.

Biodiversity Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Mary M. Rowland
USDA Forest Sevice
Pacific Northwest Research Station
1401 Gekeler Lane
La Grande, OR 97850
541-962-6582
mrowland@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p78

Cascading Threat Model Applications in Conducting Hazard and Risk Assessment for Wildfire and Post-Burn Flash Flood

Authored By: F. May

Fred May

Jacksonville State University Institute for Emergency Preparedness

Cascading hazard models depict either potential threat (threat model) sequences or document historic ones (consequence model). Wildfires and associated flashfloods produce a numerous array of potential threat sequences, too numerous to recall. Threat models developed using computer software designed to capture cascading and branching threat sequences enable mitigation workers to anticipate complex sequences, identify critical threats or consequences, and develop mitigation and response strategies and to determine systematic education or training needs.

Credible cascading threat models are developed by multi-agency teams of specialists. They are updated as events provide additional insights. Threat models are powerful analytical tools useful in regional planning and for detailed and systematic local hazard and risk assessments. These models have been used successfully for hazard and risk assessment with Federal, State and local planning teams coming together to analyze threat or consequence sequences for specific geographic areas. The systematic approach leaves “no stone unturned” in analyzing threat and risk and in determining mitigation or response strategies. The approach is efficient, allowing for a complete analysis in a couple of hours; updates for analysis conducted on an annual cycle require less time and are more complete than fragmental approaches based on limiting lists or tables of considerations. As analyses are conducted, the software allows for easy updating to include additional threats or consequences encountered during actual analysis sessions.

Cascading models are understood with a unique nomenclature beyond the typical primary and secondary hazards, and with threat and consequence/impact nomenclature, threat tree geography, linkage, and pathway and branch analysis. An effective analog is cascading (toppling) dominoes, arranged in branching sequences, depicting how a wildfire can threaten community or government resources. These are based on the combined experience of planning teams. Envisioning a single domino (part of a cascading sequence), one sees two numbers. For the purpose of cascading hazard and risk analysis, the top number refers to the degree of damage for a particular asset, while the bottom number refers to the degree of consequence if that asset is lost, or damaged. As dominoes tip over, they tip over in a sequence analogous to the cascading of threats in a wildfire, or post-burn flashflood. The first to topple is called the primary threat (anticipated) or consequence (historic), the second is the secondary threat, the third are tertiary threats, the fourth are quaternary threats, etc., in branching sequences. The computer depicts the branching sequences as a branching tree structure – a cascading threat or consequence model – also known as a hazard tree. In reality, what is observed are cascading degrees of damage and associated cascading degrees of consequence. The analysis process ultimately exposes the anticipated cascading wildfire and post-burn flash flood damages (losses) and consequences. It then serves as a realistic justification tool for mitigation. It also identifies highly-dangerous threats that may otherwise go undetected but can now be factored into decision making for development of mitigation strategies. Rather than developing mitigation plans for single point threats, as is often done, the strategies are developed for sequences of events, where some mitigation can be performed at each node between threats (dominoes).

This paper explains both generic (anticipated) and historic (consequence) cascading threat models for wildfire and post-burn flashflood. On August 18 through September 1, 2001, the city of Santaquin, Utah, experienced a serious wildfire that burned 8,000 acres of watershed above the city’s east bench; hundreds of homes were directly threatened. The Utah Interagency Technical Team (IAT) provided an interagency assessment and advised local officials and residents. The anticipated thunderstorm struck one year later, on September 12, 2002, producing serious impacts. The Davis County, Utah, model is an analysis conducted in advance of an event, providing the county with detailed and systematic interagency input on potential threat and mitigation options.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Fred May
Institute for Emergency Preparedness
Jacksonville State University
700 Pelham Road
Jacksonville, AL 36265
256-782-8053
fmay@jsu.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p75

Challenges in Bringing Risk Assessment into Forest and Rangeland Management

Authored By: D. C. Lee

Danny C. Lee

USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center

Many current forest and rangeland management issues are inherently complex and broad-scale, involving multiple components interacting in space and time.  The combination of system complexity, natural variation, and ignorance ensures that attempts to project future conditions or trends are inherently uncertain.  At the same time, various goods and services provided by ecological systems are differentially valued by stakeholders.  This leaves managers no option but to choose tradeoffs between competing values and uncertainties.  Informed public management demands a rigorous means of incorporating stakeholder values and perspectives, and analyzing and displaying the consequences of alternative actions.  To this end, comparative risk assessment (CRA) provides a candid and rigorous quantification of the risk (defined as expected loss) associated with alternative courses of action.

Despite its advantages, comparative risk assessment has not reached the stature that it seemingly deserves within natural resource management.  There are many reasons why, but five excuses commonly given include 1) lack of expertise in either implementing or interpreting CRA, 2) lack of data and information, 3) daunting system complexity, 4) reluctance to express uncertainty, and 5) perception that CRA often is irrelevant to the final management decision.  These are not insurmountable obstacles, as evidenced by this conference.  Experienced practitioners of CRA and mangers that integrate CRA into their decisions can aptly demonstrate the utility and practicality of the CRA process.  Remaining challenges include further advances in technology, education, and leadership.

Tuesday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

Danny C. Lee
Director, EFETAC
P.O. Box 2680
Asheville, NC 28802
828-257-4854
dclee@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p109

Characterizing the Range and Variability of Pre-Management Era and Future Vegetation to Support Forest Plan Revision, Project-Level Planning, and Implementation in Central Oregon

Authored By: R. S. Kennedy, T. A. Spies, M. Moeur, M. A. Hemstrom

Rebecca S.H. Kennedy, Thomas A. Spies, Melinda Moeur, and Miles A. Hemstrom

USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station

Sustaining late-successional forest and associated wildlife habitat is one of the primary goals of the Northwest Forest Plan, and is currently addressed through the implementation of late successional reserve areas throughout the Plan area. In disturbance-prone landscapes such as the dry physiographic provinces of the Plan area (e.g., Eastern Cascades, Klamath Mountains, etc.), achieving this goal involves addressing the risk of loss of old forest to stand-replacing disturbances resulting from fuels buildup and altered future climatic regimes. Managers and planners need better information about historical and potential future fire regimes and their effects on vegetation patterns to increase the likelihood of success of forest planning efforts. Under altered climatic regimes, shifts in potential vegetation types and modifications to fire regimes may have dramatic effects on potential future old forest amounts and their distribution across landscapes. We developed an approach that integrates spatial simulation modeling, probabilistic risk analysis, and geospatial technologies to characterize the historical range of variability and the potential future range of variability of fire regimes and resulting vegetation patterns, in the Deschutes National Forest landscape in central Oregon. We used landscape fire succession models (LADS and LANDSUM) to simulate fire, management, and insect and disease effects to develop multivariate statistical uncertainty clouds characterizing the historical range of variability in old forest and spatially explicit probability surfaces depicting the likelihood of production of late successional forest and other vegetation types across the Deschutes National Forest landscape. For scenarios of potential futures we plan to simulate changes resulting from current and altered climate regimes and various levels of management, using a dynamic vegetation model (MC1) to describe potential future shifts in the fire regime and vegetation patterns under altered climate regimes. Results will be useful to managers and policymakers involved in forest plan revision and project-level planning in fire-prone landscapes.

Biodiversity Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Rebecca S.H. Kennedy
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
3200 SW Jefferson Way
Corvallis, OR 97331
541-750-7262
rebeccakennedy@fs.fed.us

note: oral presentation only

 

Encyclopedia ID: p84

Conifer-Infesting Adelgids: Pre-Visual Detection for a Genus of Invasive Species of Insects in North American Forests

Authored By: S. Cook, K. Humes, R. Hruska, C. Williams

Stephen Cook and Karen Humes, Ryan Hruska, and Christopher Williams

University of Idaho Department of Forest Resources (1), Department of Geography (2) and Division of Statistics (4), and Idaho National Laboratory (3)

The balsam woolly adelgid, Adelges picea, and hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Homoptera: Adelgidae), are invasive pests of coniferous forests in both the eastern and western United States.  Balsam woolly adelgid is capable of attacking and killing native North American firs, with Fraser fir in the east and subalpine fir in the west being particularly susceptible to infestation.  Hemlock woolly adelgid is capable of infesting native hemlocks and is a serious pest in forests of the eastern United States where it is causing significant mortality to both eastern and Carolina hemlock.  Infestations by either of these insects may take several years to kill the host tree.  Damage by hemlock woolly adelgid frequently causes needles to discolor from deep green to grayish green.  Discoloration of needles is also one of the symptoms used to diagnose infestations of balsam woolly adelgid.  Traditional methods for assessing damage by these adelgid species include field surveys and aerial detection surveys.  However, because infestations frequently occur in remote locations and can take years to build up, stand damage may accrue prior to visual detection of the infestations.  Branch-level, spectral data of the foliage from trees were collected for several categories of infestation.  In the western United States, data were collected from subalpine fir infested with balsam woolly adelgid in northern Idaho.  In the eastern United States, data were collected from eastern hemlock in western North Carolina.  Trees were sampled using a hand-held spectroradiometer.  The measured radiance spectra were converted to percent reflectance and comparisons made between the infestation categories.  Separation of the infestation levels occurred in a progressive pattern moving from non-infested to newly (or lightly) infested to heavily infested trees.  Results suggest that pre-visual detection of this group of invasive insects may be possible with appropriate spatial and spectral sensor resolution.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Stephen Cook
Department of Forest Resource
University of Idaho
PO Box 441133
Moscow, ID 83844-1133
208-885-2722
stephenc@uidaho.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p70

A Landscape Scale GIS Tool to Assess Eastern Hemlock Susceptibility to Hemlock Wooly Adelgid Infestation

Authored By: J. Pontius, R. Hallett, M. Martin, L. Plourde

Jennifer Pontius, Richard Hallett, Mary Martin, and Lucie Plourde

USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station (1-2) and University of New Hampshire Complex Systems Research Center (3-4)

Hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand) (HWA) is an invasive insect pest that is causing widespread mortality of eastern hemlock. However, some stands remain living more than a decade after infestation. Susceptibility models were created from variables including soil and foliar chemistry and landscape position, and were validated against detailed, yearly, post-infestation decline measurements (including pre-visual symptoms). The most effective model was used to predict hemlock susceptibility to HWA infestation (post infestation rate of decline) at a landscape scale using variables derived from hyperspectral remote sensing imagery and digital elevation models (DEM). Our previous work has shown that hyperspectral remote sensing technology can be used to map the location of the host resource (hemlock abundance), hemlock health, and foliar chemistry (Nitrogen) and create continuous, spatially accurate, landscape scale coverages of these variables. We demonstrate this modeling technique by integrating these data layers into ARC GIS and creating a landscape scale model to map relative hemlock susceptibility to HWA in the Catskills region of NY. These techniques are applicable to HWA infestation across the Northeastern U.S. and will provide a basis for forest land management agencies to focus biological control efforts and make management decisions as HWA continues to spread.

 

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Jennifer Pontius
USDA Forest Service
Northeastern Research Station
P.O. Box 640
Durham, NH 03824
603-868-7739
Jennifer.Pontius@unh.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p65

Developing and Validating a Method for Monitoring and Tracking Changes in Southern Pine Beetle Hazard at the Landscape Level

Authored By: R. F. Billings, E. L. Smith, J. Zhu, S. Verma, N. Kouchoukos, J. Heo

Ronald F. Billings, L. Allen Smith, Jin Zhu, Shailu Verma, Nick Kouchoukos, and Joon Heo

Texas Forest Service (1-3) and Forest One, Inc. (4-6)

The objective of this research project was to develop and validate a method for using satellite images and digital geospatial data to map the distribution of southern pine beetle (SPB) habitats across the pinelands of East Texas. Our approach builds on the widely accepted work of Billings & Bryant, who used discriminant analysis of color infrared aerial photographs to identify and rank environmental conditions suitable for SPB infestation. Because current implementations of Billings & Bryant’s method by the Texas Forest Service (TFS) use manual photo interpretation, they are relatively costly, labor intensive, and require sampling. Satellite imagery and GIS technology present possible means to reduce operational costs and improve accuracy. Here we report the principal results of our work in a pilot area of East Texas, specifically: 1) development and integration of satellite and digital inputs into the Billings & Bryant model, 2) accuracy assessment of model inputs, 3) validation of the model adaptation through comparison of satellite-derived SPB hazard maps to operational maps produced by TFS, and 4) Re-validation of the model through comparison of satellite-derived SPB hazard maps to known locations of SPB infestations.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Nick Kouchoukos
Forest One, Inc.
300 Park Boulevard, Suite 425
Itasca, IL 60143
630-250-1428
nkouchoukos@lanworth.com

 

Encyclopedia ID: p86

Developing National-Scale Surveys for Exotic Pests and Defining Their Reliability

Authored By:

John W. Coulston, William D. Smith, Frank H. Koch, and Frank J. Sapio

North Carolina State University Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources (1,3)
USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station (2)
USDA Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (4)

Every year, a large number of non-native insects and diseases affecting forest tree species are intercepted at U.S. ports of entry from shipments of live plants, solid wood packing materials, logs and raw wood products, and other commercial goods.  Pests that evade the inspection process may be accidentally introduced into nearby forests or, via interstate shipment, into other locations across the country.  Potentially serious exotic pests that have recently made inroads into U.S. forested landscapes include sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum), detected in coastal California in 1995, emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) in 2002 and the sirex woodwasp (Sirex noctilio), which was first detected in upstate New York in 2005.  For these three pests and others, national-scale early detection/rapid response survey protocols were implemented soon after their discovery.  The purpose of such surveys is to substantiate that areas outside initial invasion zones remain free of the pest of interest.  Typically, the statistical reliability of such surveys has not been defined, nor has a desired level of statistical reliability been used in designing the surveys.  Here, we adapt techniques used in preventative veterinary medicine for substantiating freedom from disease in animal herds to the spatial domain for forest pests.  To accomplish this, we use a bootstrap approach to estimate the conditional probability of survey success in the spatial domain.  The techniques may be applied in two different ways.  First, they may be used to determine optimal sample sizes for new surveys given a desired level of confidence as well as acceptable pest detection probability and prevalence thresholds.  Alternately, the techniques may be used to determine the detection probability and prevalence thresholds or the level of confidence based on sample size of existing surveys.  We also discuss techniques to adapt the bootstrap estimation when the sensitivity or specificity of the insect trap or disease test is imperfect.  The implementation of these techniques for future regional or national-scale surveys allows for optimal allocation of sample plots for maximizing reliability given limited funds to support future survey efforts.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

William D. Smith
Southern Research Station
3041 E. Cornwallis Road
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
(919) 549-4067
bdsmith@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p107

Digital Aerial SketchMapping

Authored By: E. Hinkley, T. Zajkowski, C. Schrader-Patton

Everett Hinkley, Tom Zajkowski, and Charlie Schrader-Patton

USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (1), and RedCastle Resources (2-3)

Aerial sketchmapping is the geo-locating of features that are seen on the ground below the aircraft, and the subsequent recording of those features.  Traditional aerial sketchmapping methods required hand-sketching on hardcopy maps or photos, and the translation of that information to a digital file.  In 1999, the USDA Forest Service embarked on a project to develop a digital aerial sketchmapping system (D-ASM) to replace the current system.  Recent advances in PC system performance made possible the use of portable computers to aid with aerial sketchmapping.  The USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (RSAC) and the Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) worked with to develop a product that would meet the needs of the aerial surveyors.  

After a great deal of testing and evaluation, two systems have emerged and are in common use today; a two screen system and a pen tablet system.  Advantages to the D-ASM system include automatic tracking of the aircraft’s position on a map base through a link to a GPS receiver and a significant reduction in the time spent digitizing data into a Geographic Information System (GIS).  Now a mature system, the D-ASM has been widely accepted by the sketchmapping community. 

Following initial system development, a D-ASM was shown to wildfire Air Attack crews who liked the concept, but wanted the system to be smaller, and for it to include a means to get the information down to the incident command in real time.  Two technological developments solved these requirements; commercially available touch-screen pen tablet computers and the NASA developed long-range high speed data link named RIPCom.  The Remote Internet Protocol Communications System (RIPCom) culminated from a successful two-year collaboration between NASA-Goddard and RSAC. 

The integration of the D-ASM and RIPCom systems enable fire fighting experts to collect pertinent information about an incident and rapidly disseminate this information to the incident’s command through wireless devices.  Possible customers within the wildfire community include; Air Attack, Helitack, Situation Unit Leaders, Operations Chiefs, and Incident Commanders.

Monitoring Methods Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding authors:

Everett Hinkley
USDA Forest Service
Remote Sensing Applications Center
2222 West, 2300 South
Salt Lake City, UT 84119
801-975-3752
ehinkley@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p62

Establishing a Nationwide Baseline of Historical Burn Severity Data to Support Monitoring of Trends in Wildfire Effects and National Fire Policies

Authored By: B. Schwind, B. Quayle, K. Brewer, J. Eidenshink

Brian Schwind, Brad Quayle, Ken Brewer, and Jeff Eidenshink

USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center (1-3)and USGS/EROS Data Center

There is a need to provide agency leaders, elected officials, and the general public with summary information regarding the effects of large wildfires.  Recently, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council (WFLC), which implements and coordinates National Fire Plan (NFP) and Federal Wildland Fire Management Policies (National Fire Plan, 2004), adopted a strategy to monitor the effectiveness and effects of the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA).  One component of this strategy is to assess the environmental impacts of large wildland fires and identify the trends of burn severity on all lands across the United States (WFLC 2004 Monitoring Proposal, Module 2.1)

To that end, WFLC has sponsored a six year project, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), which requires the USFS and the USGS to map and assess the burn severity for all large current and historical fires.  Using Landsat data and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) algorithm, the USGS/EROS Data Center and USDA-FS/ Remote Sensing Applications Center will map burn severity of all fires since 1984 greater than 500 acres in the east, and 1000 acres in the west.  The number of historical fires from this period combined with current fires occurring during the course of the project will exceed 9000.

The MTBS project will generate burn severity data, maps, and reports which will be available for use at local, state and national levels to evaluate trends in burn severity and help develop and assess the effectiveness of land management decisions.   Additionally, the information developed will provide a baseline from which to monitor the recovery and health of fire affected landscapes over time.  Spatial and tabular data quantifying burn severity will augment existing information used to estimate risk associated with a range current and future resource threats.   As an example, fire severity data along with associated biophysical characteristics provide an analytical basis for assessing risk from invasive species as well as native insects and pathogens.  All data and results will be distributed to the public via an internet interface. 

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Brian Schwind
USDA Forest Service
Remote Sensing Applications Center
2222 W. 2300 South
Salt Lake City, UT 84119
801-975-3765
bschwind@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p76

Evaluating Risk to Forest Health and Sustainability with the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators

Authored By: K. W. Stolte

Kenneth W. Stolte

USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station

The Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators (MPCI) are a platform for the collection, analyses, and interpretation of data that directly affects the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems. Even with a focused list of Criteria and associated Indicators to address health and sustainability, it can be difficult to define key words or phrases, and difficult-to-impossible to obtain all desired datasets to fulfill information needs.  It can be conceptually problematic for land owners and land managers facing an array of 67 Indicators within 7 Criteria, but can be clarified by the development of models of the interaction of MPCI Criteria, and models of Indicators within Criterion (C). This paper presents a systems model for understanding the primary relationships among the seven Montreal Process Criteria, and a systems model for understanding the relationships among the 3 Indicators of Criterion 3 (Forest Health and Vitality).  Terminology of the 3 Indicators had to be clarified and defined, and approaches for analyses constructed, so that available but disparate data sets could be analyzed to determine the area and percent of forests affected in the U.S. by an array of stressors. Criterion 3 (C3) was found to be the interface between human society (Criteria 6 and 7) and forest ecosystem attributes (Criteria 1, 2, 4, and 5), because Criterion 3 contains new human-induced stressors and exacerbated natural stressors (Indicators 1 and 2 of C3) and the initial effects on forest ecosystem processes or continuity (Indicator 3 of C3).  Forest Productivity (C2) and Soil and Water Conservation (C4) were the primary attributes of forest ecosystems affected by significant changes in ecological processes, closely interacting with each other and the major constituents of Carbon Cycling (C5).  Biological Diversity (C1) is essentially the living component of C5 and the ultimate endpoint or recipient of Criteria 2-to-7 interactions. 

Monitoring Methods Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Kenneth W. Stolte
USDA Forest Service
Southern Research Station
3041 E. Cornwallis Road
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
919.549.4022
kstolte@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p67

Fire and Root Disease Interactions in Coniferous Forests of the Inland West: Development of Decision Tools and Guidance for Supporting Healthy-Forest Management

Authored By: M. Kim, N. B. Klopfenstein, R. C. Rippy, J. E. Stewart, P. J. Zambino, J. M. Tirocke, W. G. Thies

Mee-Sook Kim, Ned B. Klopfenstein, Raini C. Rippy, Jane E. Stewart, Paul J. Zambino, Joanne M. Tirocke, and Walter G. Thies

USDA Forest Service – Rocky Mountain Research Station (1-6) and Pacific Northwest Research Station (7)

Long-term fire exclusion, introduced pests, selective timber harvesting, and selective planting have caused dramatic changes in forest-stand composition in much of the western USA. These changes have also contributed to heavy accumulations of fuels and ample fuel ladders that increase threats of severe wildfires. Consequently, many forest managers are practicing fuels treatments to lower the risk of severe wildfire. However, fuels treatments can affect many complex interactions within forest ecosystems, where even subtle disturbances can trigger unforeseen responses due to associated organisms.

Root diseases are among the most understudied and underestimated sources of mortality that cause buildup of wildland fuels. Historically, root diseases apparently played a predominantly beneficial role in many forests by favoring ecological processes of succession, decomposition, and stand renewal through fire. In most natural stands, native root diseases do not typically cause irreparable, large-scale damage to ecosystems or threaten the loss of any host species. Recently, shifts in stand composition resulting from natural and human-caused disturbances have contributed to increased damage from root-rot diseases. At sites with increased risk of root rot disease, changes in root-disease dynamics have the potential to influence forest growth and succession for centuries. Thus, it is prudent to critically consider the potential impacts from root disease before selecting management activities, including fuels treatments.

Various fuels treatments are available, but treatments routinely involve mechanical treatments and/or prescribed fire. Mechanical treatments, such as thinning, can remove fuels as forest products, including biomass for energy. Thinning can be selective for species and size class. Other mechanical treatments may involve removing fuels ladders, placing fuels on the forest floor, and/or reducing the size of downed fuels to accelerate decomposition. Prescribed fire is also commonly used to reduce fire risk; however, its effects on resulting stand structure are less predictable than mechanical treatments. Long-term success of fuels treatments in lowering the risk of severe wildfire depends in part on the long-term impacts on root diseases that contribute to subsequent fuels accumulation. Thus, fuels treatment should be selected to match the overall objectives for a stand, while addressing potential impacts of root disease dynamics.

Fuels management requires an ecosystem-level approach, because root disease (and other causes of tree mortality) result from complex ecological interactions. For example, tree thinning can increase the inoculum potential of root-rot pathogens that colonize stumps, residual root systems, and/or slash. New opportunities for root disease can also be created by thinning-associated wounds on remaining trees. Also, thinning treatments that select against seral tree species (e.g., pine or larch) may result in stands dominated by tree species that are more susceptible to root rots (e.g., true firs or Douglas-fir). Fuels treatments that cause physiological stress to host trees may also increase the likelihood of root-rot problems. Although slash burning may vary in its effects on root disease caused by different pathogens, superficial burning appears to have little long-term impact on the physical distribution of some pathogens (e.g., Armillaria species, Phellinus weirii, and Heterobasidion annosum) that occupy protected areas within structural roots. However, some measures may reduce root-rot risk by limiting or removing substrate that would be available for colonization by root pathogens. Thus, appropriate fuels treatments should be selected to reduce current and future levels of fuels, while avoiding undesirable increases in root disease. Also, some pathogens are specific to certain tree species.  For these reasons, an essential step in selecting appropriate fuels treatments is an on-site evaluation for the presence and distribution of each root disease likely to be present in an area proposed for fuels treatment. Root disease surveys include observing signs and symptoms on living trees, with additional examinations of snags, stumps, and overturned trees.

Currently, fuels reduction treatments are a prominent national issue; however, relatively few research studies have specifically addressed fuels-treatment effects on root diseases. This is of particular concern because the consequences of fuels treatments on root disease may not be readily apparent until decades after treatment. Long-term studies are critically needed to provide more precise information about the complex interrelationships among specific fuels treatment and root diseases in diverse environments. This paper explores concepts, technologies, and research needs to provide a better understanding of interactions among root pathogens, fuels treatments, and fire. A general synthesis of this information is essential for forest managers. Such information helps provide decision tools and guidance for developing fuels treatments prescriptions and root-rot management. In addition, the recent development of a web-based decision tool for evaluating fuels treatments on root disease will be presented and discussed.   

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Mee-Sook Kim
USDA Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
1221 South Main Street
Moscow, ID 83843
208-883-2362
mkim@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p69

Information Needs, Tolerance for Risk, and Protection from Risk: The Case of National Predictive Services Customers

Authored By: H. Bigler-Cole, P. L. Winter

Patricia L. Winter and Heidi Bigler-Cole

USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (1) and Pacific Northwest Research Station (2)

For complex situations, such as prediction of fire weather, there is a degree of uncertainty (Derby and Keeney 1981). How that uncertainty is addressed can be tailored to meet information users’ needs and preferences. Involving the users of predictive services in the design of messages, including the types of information delivered, format, and approach to risk, fits with Fischoff’s (1995) recommendation for involving the recipients of risk information in the crafting of the risk message. Johnson’s (2004) research suggests that risk statements should take into account variations in target audiences. Tolerance for risk has been outlined as an essential aspect of understanding management decisions (Gregory and Keeney 2002).

In this paper we describe a study conducted of recipients of risk-related information. We contacted users and potential users of National Predictive Services, including those who might receive services such as briefings, and those who might use their products, such as those offered through the various Geographic Coordination Center websites. Each potential user was a member of the fire management community, including fire management officers, meteorologists, information officers or public affairs personnel, and members of various fire-management teams. These individuals came from Federal, State, and more local fire agencies, though the majority were within Federal agencies. Respondents completed a self-administered survey via a web-based service.

Findings examine the types of information users reported needing, preferred formats for information delivery and likelihood of applying information from Predictive Services in decisions made about fire. Of interest to the risk management/risk communication focus are the reported views on acceptability of risk and tolerance for errors, how risk is viewed and addressed (through the view of Protection Motivation theory), and trust and confidence in the information delivered through Predictive Services. Barriers to utilization of Predictive Services are illuminated.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Patricia L. Winter
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Southwest Research Station
4955 Canyon Crest Drive
Riverside, CA 92507
951-680-1557
pwinter@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p80

Illustrating Approaches to Uncertainty Estimation for Map-Based Estimation Problems

Authored By: M. A. Hatfield, R. E. McRoberts

Mark A. Hatfield and Ronald E. McRoberts

USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station

Traditionally natural resource managers and users of natural resource data have asked the question “How much?” and have received sample-based estimates of totals or means for large areas such as counties, regions, or states.  Increasingly, however, the same managers and users are now asking the additional question “Where?” and are expecting spatially explicit answers in the form of maps.  Fortunately, the recent development and widespread availability of natural resource databases, moderate resolution satellite imagery, image classification techniques, statistical software, and geographic information systems (GIS) have facilitated construction of the required maps.  Unfortunately, the relevance of the uncertainty associated with these maps has not been sufficiently emphasized, techniques for estimating it are either not known or are not taught, and systems for portraying and analyzing it are generally not available.   When scientists who estimate and analyze uncertainty decry the lack of map uncertainty estimates, managers and users often respond that it doesn’t matter because the map itself is still useful and, besides, there are no other alternatives.  Thus, it behooves uncertainty scientists to articulate the consequences of ignoring uncertainty and to describe and demonstrate to user communities the techniques for estimating and analyzing it.

This presentation illustrates the use of analytical, Monte Carlo, and sensitivity techniques for assessing uncertainty in three categories:  (1) individual maps, (2) maps constructed by combining underlying maps using GIS techniques, and (3)  maps constructed using models that accept input from underlying maps.  In the first category, the emphasis is on estimating the precision of predictions for individual mapping units using analytical techniques associated with the particular map construction technique or Monte Carlo techniques when the analytical techniques are intractable or unavailable.  In the second category, the emphasis is on estimating the precision of mapping unit predictions resulting from the GIS intersection of underlying maps.  In the third category, the emphasis is on estimating the precision of mapping unit predictions when underlying map information is integrated via an application-based model.  Examples and illustrations are drawn from map-based analyses of the potential threat to forest land in Michigan, USA, from the Emerald Ash Borer.

Statistical Methods Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Mark Hatfield
Forest Inventory and Analysis
North Central Research Station
1992 Folwell Avenue
St. Paul, MN
651-649-5169
mahatfield@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p104

Integrating Natural Disturbances and Management Activities to Examine Risks and Opportunities in the Central Oregon Landscape Analysis

Authored By: M. A. Hemstrom, X. Zhou, R. J. Barbour, J. Merzenich

Miles Hemstrom, Xiaoping Zhou, R. James Barbour, and J. Merzenich

USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station (1-2) and Pacific Northwest Region (4)

We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances (wildfire, insect epidemics, and others) with management activities to project potential future conditions of forest composition, structure, timber products, wildlife habitats, and disturbance probabilities in portions of the upper Deschutes subbasin in Oregon.  Our models were run on combinations of ownership, land allocation, and potential vegetation type within individual watersheds.  We examined the potential effects of three landscape scenarios that integrate natural disturbances with varying levels of management activities.  Our scenarios included 1) current management approximating the levels and kinds of treatments done over the last decade, 2) aggressive fuel treatments in the wildland-urban interface while protecting and enhancing old forest conditions on other federally managed lands, and 3) aggressive fire-suppression with little active management on federal lands.  Our results suggest that while aggressive fuel treatment may reduce the risks of high-intensity wildfire in the wildland-urban interface, opportunities to pay for treatments with forest products are often low. Fire suppression only may result in relatively low amounts of old forest and high amounts of stand replacement disturbance.  In addition, we suggest that managing for old forests outside the wildland-urban interface is likely to have highly variable success and that success may depend on a closer integration of stand-scale treatment tactics with mid-scale (e.g. many watersheds) strategies.  Given the somewhat unstable nature of multi-story old forest in dry environments in the study area, we question the utility of formally designated reserves to conserve multi-story old forest habitats.  Future research should include a thoughtful integration of stand-level silvicultural models and mid-scale landscape models, a better understanding of natural fire and insect probabilities, new or alternative silvicultural treatments to foster various old forest conditions in different environments, and reconsideration of conservation designs for old-forest habitats.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Miles A. Hemstrom
Portland Forestry Sciences Laboratory
PO Box 3890
USDA Forest Service
Portland, OR 97208
503-808-2006
mhemstrom@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p79

Integration of Population Genetic Structure and Climate Modeling: Sustaining Genetic Resources through Evaluation of Projected Threats

Authored By: B. A. Richardson, M. V. Warwell, M. Kim, N. B. Klopfenstein, P. J. Zambino, G. I. McDonald

Bryce A. Richardson, Marcus V. Warwell, Mee-Sook Kim, Ned B. Klopfenstein, Paul J. Zambino, and Geral I. McDonald

USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

To assess threats and/or predict responses to disturbance, it is essential that the population structures of forest species are recognized and characterized in relation to changing environments. Adequate management of these genetic resources into the future will require: 1) understanding the existing genetic diversity and population structure of forest trees and associated organisms, 2) understanding climatic change and its potential impacts on forest species and 3) development and use of new tools to identify populations at risk and areas suitable as future habitat.

Forest trees and associated organisms exist within distinct geographic populations created by climatic shifts, evolutionary processes, and the availability of suitable habitats. These processes have occurred over millennia and continue to shape the biogeography and genetics of these species. In western forests, studies based on DNA markers and field tests are defining populations of forest trees. For example, studies of western white pine (Pinus monticola) and whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) demonstrate the existence of several distinct populations that have likely developed by the processes described above. These studies and others have shown that distinct populations exist within western conifer species and that the biogeography of these species is dynamic across time and space. Some of the between-population genetic discontinuities of different conifer species appear to fall along the same geographic boundaries. In addition, pathogens and insects (e.g., Arceuthobium spp. and Dendroctonus spp.) can reflect partitions in population structure similar to those of their conifer hosts, suggesting that these plant-pest associations co-migrate during climatic fluctuations. However, more research is needed to determine if population distributions and discontinuities are similar for other species of these biotic communities.

Currently, plant-climate modeling suggests that climate change may represent a tremendous threat to forest ecosystems. Predictions indicate dramatic shifts in the future distributions of entire forest species (i.e., Picea spp.), under even conservative estimates of future climate change. Patterns of adaptive variation exhibited by most western species are also likely to undergo extensive redistribution resulting in large scale maladaptaion within species. These maladapted populations will likely face increased risks associated with catastrophic wildfire, attack by insect and pathogen pests, and losses in productivity.

Integrating existing population genetic structure with landscape-based, plant/climate modeling could provide the ability to assess threats to unique conifer populations and predict new and potentially disjunct locations of suitable habitat under warming climates. These tools will enable genetic resource managers to focus current and future species management efforts on populations at highest risk. Our ability to define populations and predict the effects of climate change on biogeographic displacement of forest trees is closely linked to future forest health. The developments in population genetics, ecological genetics and climate modeling of whitebark pine and western white pine will be presented and discussed. Similar approaches could be developed for other forest organisms.

Air and Water Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Bryce A. Richardson
USDA Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
1221 S. Main Street
Moscow, ID 83843
brichardson02@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p73

A Methodology for Assessing Annual Risk of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks across the Southern Region Using Pheromone Traps

Authored By: R. F. Billings, W. Upton

Ronald F. Billings and William Upton

Texas Forest Service

A practical and reliable system to forecast population trends and infestation levels of the southern pine beetle (SPB), Dendroctonus frontalis, has been implemented throughout the range of this forest pest in the southern United States.  The South-wide SPB Prediction System, developed by the Texas Forest Service (TFS), involves monitoring numbers of southern pine beetles and those of a major predator of SPB (the clerid beetle, Thanasimus dubius).  In general, three Lindgren funnel traps baited with the SPB aggregation pheromone frontalin and a rapid release container of pine turpentine are placed in each county or National Forest to be surveyed.  The traps are monitored for four consecutive weeks during the spring (when dogwood trees bloom).  This physiological event coincides with the long-range dispersal of SPB.  Responding insects are collected weekly.  The average number of SPB/trap/day and the ratio of SPB to clerids are the variables used for predicting infestation trends for the remainder of the year.  Since its initiation, the system has proven to be a practical and reasonably accurate means for forecasting SPB population trends (increasing, declining or static) and expected infestation levels (low, moderate, high or outbreak) throughout the pest’s range in the southern United States.  Results from trapping surveys received from numerous state and federal cooperators in 15 states are compiled by TFS entomologists and predictions are delivered to the public via the Internet.  Predictions, validated by subsequent infestation detection records, have proven accurate ca. 70-80% of the time.  Forest managers have come to depend on this early warning system to predict pending outbreaks or collapses of SPB populations.  This represents the first effective prediction system for bark beetle outbreaks anywhere in the world.  Predictions can be incorporated into area-wide hazard maps to generate up-to-date risk maps for a particular national forest, county, state or region.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Ronald F. Billings
Texas Forest Service
301 Tarrow, Suite 364
College Station, TX 77840-7896
979-458-6650
rbillings@tfs.tamu.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p85

Managing Wildland Fire Risk in Florida

Authored By: J. Brenner, D. Carlton, S. Mclellan, A. Dozier, T. Spencer, R. Jones, A. Ralowicz

J. Brenner, D. Carlton, S. Mclellan, A. Dozier, T. Spencer, R. Jones and A. Ralowicz

Florida Division of Forestry (1,3)
Fire Program Solutions LLC (2)
Georgia Forestry Commission (4)
Texas Forest Service (5)
Sanborn Map Company Inc. (6)
MDA Federal Inc. (7)

Summary: We define wildfire risk as the probability of a wildfire occurring at a specified location and under given circumstances and its impacts on the affected objects e.g., homes, powerlines, plantations, etc (A. Bachmann et al 2001). Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment (FRA), completed in 2002, is a statewide effort to develop a comprehensive suite of standardized, spatial data layers needed to support implementation of a statewide fuels management strategy. By maintaining focus on fire/fuel dynamics and scientifically credible local-to-statewide applications, the FRA builds on a statewide surface fuels map, fire history data from many agencies, and weather data collected over a period of 20 years. Change detection is currently being utilized to update the statewide surface fuels layer. The process used in the FRA builds on a process first applied in the Lake Tahoe Basin Land Management Unit. Subsequent application with some modifications has recently been applied to thirteen Southern States (Southern Fire Risk Assessment).

Approach: FRA integrates several methodologies for predictive landscape modeling including remote sensing and fuels modeling into a comprehensive process for mapping vegetation, fire, and fuel characteristics. FRA methodologies are based on many years of successful scientific research and are grounded in the expertise of Mr. Don Carlton and his 30+ years of experience in the field of wildland fire behavior. FRA creates maps that characterize vegetation condition, potential fire behavior and effects. These maps may be used for prioritizing areas for fire prevention and fuels mitigation measures, as well as landscape rehabilitation and ecological restoration projects. They have also been used strategically to reduce wildfire costs, losses, and damages by assessing community risk from catastrophic wildfire.

On June 9th, 2004 the Commissioner of Agriculture for the State of Florida announced to the Florida press the completion of Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment. This announcement directed the public to two versions of the FRA application known as FRAS (Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment System). The first is a standalone application that requires additional software, e.g., ESRI’s ArcView 3.x, Flammap, and the Spatial Analyst Extension if one plans on making fire occurrence or fuel map changes and view the impacts resulting from fuels management or fire prevention efforts.

The second version of the application is the Web-FRAS. This application can be found on the Internet at the URL of: http://flame.fl-dof.com/risk/. The release of the Wildland Fire Risk Assessment on the Internet has made it available to anyone in Florida. In this way, individuals anywhere in the state can view the relative risk to their home/community by simply going on line and specifying what particular sets of data they want to see. The program presents that information immediately on request. The application is user friendly, and to date has received over twenty thousand requests for information. The two indices that can be displayed in both versions include the Wildland Fire Susceptibility Index (WFSI), which displays the potential for an area to burn, and the Level of Concern (LOC), which displays the potential impact or “risk” as defined in the Summary above.

We believe that we have managed to accomplish the original goals set out in the application for the Wildland Fire Risk Assessment. These goals included:

Outcome: This presentation will touch on several of the conference themes including: risk management across spatial and temporal scales, status of immediate and long-term threats, remote sensing and geospatial technologies, risk characterization and communication, decision making under risk, risk mitigation and alternatives, and simulation modeling. It will show why this system is important for today’s wildland fire manager.

Wednesday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

Jim Brenner
Fire Management Administrator
Florida Division of Forestry
3125 Conner Blvd.
Tallahassee, FL 32399-1650
850-488-6480
brennej@doacs.state.fl.us

 

 

Encyclopedia ID: p110

MC1 DGVM Seasonal Fire Forecasting

Authored By: J. Lenihan, R. Drapek, R. Neilson, C. Daly, D. Bachelet

James Lenihan, Raymond Drapek, Ronald Neilson, Christopher Daly, and Dominique Bachelet

USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station (1-3,5), and Oregon State University (4)

For nearly a decade the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS) team from the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station in Corvallis, Oregon has developed dynamic general vegetation models (DGVMs) for forecasting the potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The MC1 DGVM includes a fire disturbance module that generates process-based simulations of fire occurrence, behavior, and effects. The fire module was developed to simulate fire effects over broad spatial scales and extended time frames to address critical issues in wildland fire and fuel management over the coming decades. These include the relative role of climate and human intervention (e.g., fire suppression) in the long-term dynamics of fuels and fire behavior, and tradeoffs between efforts to restore natural fire regimes and the sequestration of carbon to offset greenhouse gas emissions. More recently, the MAPSS team has also been using the state-of-the-art level of ecosystem and fire modeling in the MC1 DGVM to produce forecasts of fire risks and impacts over the conterminous United States for upcoming fire seasons.

The fire forecasting requires monthly updating of the observed climate across the United States, up to the most recent month available and updated every month thereafter. Observed data from a dense network of weather stations are first subject to rigorous quality control, and then interpolated to complex terrain by the PRISM model as a continuous climate surface on a grid of cells approximately 4-5 km on a side and then aggregated to a grid of about 50-kilometer per side. The future climate forecasts are available through cooperation with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) of Columbia University which provides monthly updates of 7-month future climate forecasts from five different general circulation models (GCMs) of the global atmosphere. These GCMs come from the University of Maryland (COLA), the University of Hamburg (ECHAM4.5), the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (NCEP), NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NSIPP), and the Scripps Oceanographic Institute (ECPC).           

The fire forecasts begin by simulating ecosystem and fire dynamics over the United States from 1895 at a monthly timestep up through the most recent month and then shift into the future forecasts from each of the GCMs.  The MC1 model then simulates ecosystem dynamics and fire, including fire occurrence, fire area, and fire effects, through the 7-month forecast period.  The forecasts are combined into a consensus “fire risk” map showing the areas where all or only a few of the forecasts agree on where fires might occur and their general size. The fire risk maps and ancillary drought index maps are posted monthly on the MAPSS team’s web site.

After three seasons of fire forecasting, comparisons to observed fire data have shown MC1 fire forecasts to be reasonably accurate in terms of predicting both total area burned across the United States and the location of fire events on the 50-kilometer square resolution modeling grid.  However, discrepancies between observations and hindcasts have indicated the need for model improvements, especially in regard to the assumed availability of ignition sources and the prediction of fire occurrence in fine-fuel dominated vegetation. Analysis of the monthly weather forecasts and subsequently observed weather has also revealed contraints on the accuracy of the fire forecasts imposed by the skill of the climate models.

The MAPSS team’s fire risk forecasting activities are supported by funding from the National Fire Plan, and serve all four elements of the National Fire Plan goals. At the beginning of each fire season, the MC1 fire forecasts are presented to fire managers from all nine western Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) attending the Western National Seasonal Assessment Workshop (NSAW) sponsored by the Predictive Services Group of the National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC), and are routinely incorporated into NICC’s seasonal weather/climate/fuels outlooks for the western GACCs. And currently over 160 land managers from various resource agencies are alerted each month to new fire forecasts posted on the MAPSS web site via an ever-growing email list.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

James Lenihan
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
3200 SW Jefferson Way
Corvallis, OR 97331
541-750-7432
jlenihan@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p63

Modeling Contemporary Climate Profiles and Predicting their Response to Global Warming for Several Western Forest Species with Small Geographic Distributions

Authored By: M. V. Warwell, G. E. Rehfeldt, N. L. Crookston

Marcus V. Warwell, Gerald E. Rehfeldt, and Nicolas L. Crookston

USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically-based bioclimatic model for the U.S. distribution of Pinus leiophylla.  Independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions. These climate variables were derived from a spline climate model for western U.S. that provides point estimates (latitude, longitude, and altitude) at a 1 km2 resolution. Analyses used presence-absence data from about 2245 permanent sample plots largely from FIA. Errors of classification for analyses of the occurrence of P. leiophylla were 0.1% for omission and 11% for commission. The mapped predictions of species occurrence using the species’ climate profile were more accurate than published range maps.  The Hadley and Canadian general circulation models (GCMs) were then used to assess the response of the species contemporary climate profile to climate change.  Results indicate little change in the total area occupied by the species’ island like distribution throughout the century. However, the species’ climate profile is projected to move 500km north to Colorado and upward in altitude 500m.  No portion of its current range would retain a climate suitable for the species’ U.S. populations by the end of the century.  In addition to analysis of P. leiophylla, this paper will also present results for bioclimatic models of several western species with small distributions which may predispose them to a greater threat from climate change.  These models can be used to assess species suitability for a specific location (latitude, longitude and altitude) based on either contemporary or projected climates. The application of these modes as functional tool that managers can use to mitigate effects of climate change will be addressed.

Biodiversity Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Marcus V. Warwell
USDA Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
1221 S. Main
Moscow, ID 83843
208-883-2322
mwarwell@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p90

Modeling Current Climate Conditions for Forest Pest Risk Assessment

Authored By: F. H. Koch, J. W. Coulston

Frank H. Koch and John W. Coulston

North Carolina State University Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources

Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests.  At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets.  Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year normals and rarely incorporate recent data.  Furthermore, because they are constructed on a monthly rather than a daily time step, they do not directly measure simultaneous occurrence of multiple climatic conditions (e.g., days in the past year with appropriate temperature and adequate precipitation).  Yet, the actual number of days—especially consecutive days—where multiple conditions are met could be significant for pest dispersal or establishment.  For the sudden oak death pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum), we used National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) daily weather station data to create current, national-scale grids depicting co-occurrence of multiple climatic conditions.

For each station, we constructed two count-based variables: the total number of days and the greatest number of consecutive days in a year where the station met several conditions (temperature, rain/fog, relative humidity).  We then employed gradient inverse distance squared (GIDS) interpolation to generate grids (4-km2 resolution) of these variables for five years (2000-2004).  The GIDS technique weights standard inverse distance squared interpolation using coefficients based on geographic location (x, y) and a spatial covariate such as elevation.  We determined the GIDS coefficients for each output grid cell via Poisson regression on the 30 closest stations using these variables, performing model selection to ensure only significant variables contributed to the GIDS coefficients. 

We compared the output grids to maps assembled from the PRISM data depicting the probability all conditions were met in a given year.  Expectedly, we found differences in areas highlighted as suitable for P. ramorum establishment by the two methods. We suggest that using current climatic data and calculating the variable of interest directly will provide more practical information for mapping forest pest risk.

Statistical Methods Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Frank H. Koch
Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources
North Carolina State University
2028 Biltmore Hall
Raleigh, NC 27695
919-549-4006
fkoch@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p92

Modeling Potential Movements of a Ash Threat: The Emerald Ash Borer

Authored By: L. R. Iverson, A. Prasad, J. Bossenbroek, D. Sydnor, M. W. Schwartz

Louis R. Iverson, Anantha Prasad, Jonathan Bossenbroek, Davis Sydnor, and Mark Schwartz

USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station (1-2), University of Toledo (3) , Ohio State University (4), and University of California-Davis (5)

The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) is threatening to wipe out native ashes (Fraxinus sp.) from the North American continent, and is so far doing this well across large sections of Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Ontario. We are attempting to model its future movement by adapting a model developed for the potential movement of tree species over a century of climate change. We have two model variants, an ‘insect-flight’ model and an ‘insect-ride’ model to assess potential movement.

With the ‘flight’ model, probability of movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the source cells (270 m cells), the quantity of ash in the target cells, and the distances between them. There is a low-level ‘background’ probability of long distance transport via storms, etc. To estimate abundance, we assume an 11-year cycle along a normal curve with maximum abundance at year 6 and minimum abundance at the initial colonization time as well as after the ash trees have died within the cell. For initial conditions of EAB abundance, we estimated zones of infestation each year from 1998-2005 via known EAB location and other data.

With the ‘insect-ride’ model, we have utilized GIS data to weight factors related to potential human-assisted movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just hitchhiking insects: roads, urban areas, tree nurseries, various wood products industries, and especially campgrounds. With campgrounds, we are developing a gravity model which considers traffic volumes and routes between EAB source areas and various distances to campgrounds. Each layer has buffer weights, which when combined results in a map of zones of enhanced probability of EAB colonization. We also intend to apply various ‘slow the spread’ efforts to see how these may affect spread so that various management strategies can be evaluated.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Louis R. Iverson
USDA Forest Service
Northeastern Research Station
359 Main Road
Delaware, OH 43015
740-368-0097
liverson@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p83

Modeling the Introduction and Establishment Risk for Phytophthora alni in the United States

Authored By: M. C. Downing, V. L. Thomas, R. M. Reich, S. T. Jung

Marla C. Downing, Thomas Jung, Vernon Thomas, Markus Blaschke, Michael F. Tuffly, and Robin Reich

USDA Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team; Consultant for forest and tree diseases; Information and Technology Experts, Inc. (ITX); Bavarian State Institute of Forestry; ERIA Consultants, LLC; and Colorado State University 

Increases in anthropogenic transportation of commodities in the last 200 years have led to the international spread of Phytophthora pathogens.  For example, the European species Phytophthora ramorum has recently caused tremendous damage and mortality to Quercus and Lithocarpus trees in California.  To address concerns and gain information about the potential spread of additional Phytophthora species, the USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), in Fort Collins, Colorado, is assessing the risk of introduction and establishment of Phytophthora alni into the U.S.  P. alni is a water-borne disease that is currently known to occur only in Europe on alder (Alnus) trees.  It has spread throughout Europe via rivers, a natural dispersal mechanism for the pathogen, and through the common nursery practice of irrigating field stock with river water.  The P. alni pathogen can adhere to the bare roots of non-host nursery stock and is capable of surviving transportation to the U.S. Therefore, to assess the risk of introduction of P. alni to the U.S., FHTET has developed a model that considers the importation of European nursery stock to U.S. wholesale nurseries and the natural dispersal mechanisms for the motile zoospores: streams and rivers.  FHTET is currently developing an establishment model. First by assessing the presence or absence of P. alni in Germany using climate, elevation, slope, aspect, landform, soil, river, flood, and satellite data in a classification tree, a non-parametric statistical technique.  Then the German model will identify the parameters that will be used to model the potential establishment of P. alni in the U.S.  The product of the introduction and establishment surfaces will describe the overall national susceptibility.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Marla C. Downing
USDA Forest Service
Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team
2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg. A., Suite 331
Fort Collins, CO 80526-1891
970-295-5843
mdowning@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p88

Moderate Resolution Data and Gradient Nearest Neighbor Imputation for Regional-National Risk Assessment

Authored By: K. Pierce, K. Brewer, J. Ohmann

Ken Pierce, Ken Brewer and Janet Ohmann

USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station (1 and 3) and Remote Sensing Applications Center (2)

One of the most fundamental informational needs in environmental risk assessment is consistent and continuous existing vegetation data.  These data must be of sufficient accuracy and precision to address the complex and often uncertain ecological relationships necessary to understand risk factors and management options.  Where these data do exist they are normally based on a sampling inference procedure rather than “wall to wall” inventory data.  This is particularly true when the risk assessment covers large geographic extents and multiple ownerships. Despite the capability of simulation models and decision support tools comprehensive large area risk assessment is still difficult to implement because the inventory data are rarely complete and/or current. It would be convenient to be able to operate as if detailed inventory information were available for all units in the risk assessment area. 

As an alternative to historically common statistical approaches (e.g., regression estimates or stratum averages) to populating unsampled units with data, imputation can be used.  Imputation involves estimating values for variables of interest (Y variables) by supplying realistic measurements from one or more sampled units to unsampled units with similar characteristics in auxiliary (X) variable-space.  Imputation of inventory data from sampled areas to similar unsampled areas produce datasets that function like “wall to wall” data for risk assessment purposes.  The Gradient Nearest Neighbor (GNN) imputation method developed by Ohmann and Gregory has been implemented successfully over large geographic areas to characterize existing vegetation and fire and fuels characteristics.  As currently implemented, this method develops 30 meter raster surfaces of inventory data that can then be readily analyzed for characterizing risks.

The USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has shown that it is possible to derive national mapping products using moderate resolution remote sensing images and GIS data layers (e.g. forest biomass, forest types/type groups).  These maps were produced for the continuous US and Alaska at a spatial resolution of 250 meters using FIA plot data and a geospatial predictor database, consisting of approximately 300 data layers.  Having this consistent national-scale forest type information is important for modeling forest areas at risk of mortality due to insects and diseases as well as other environmental threats.

The current work (sponsored by the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center) utilizes the 250 meter geospatial predictor data for the Eastern Washington GNN project area to explore the feasibility of using moderate resolution data and GNN imputation over regional-national geographic extents.  The utility of the 250 meter data surface is evaluated using the 30 meter data surface from the previous Joint Fire Science project work.  While the use of moderate resolution data is a promising approach its utility is both a function of the geographic extent and specific analysis objectives.  The 250 meter data surface is more appropriate for regional- and national-level analyses.

Statistical Methods Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Ken Pierce
USDA Forest Service
3200 SW Jefferson Way
Corvallis, OR 97331
541-750-7393
kpierce@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p96

Nonpathogenic Fungi: Natural Regulators in Forest Ecosystems?

Authored By: J. D. Rogers, N. B. Klopfenstein, L. M. Carris, M. Kim, P. J. Zambino, R. C. Rippy, J. R. Goetz III, P. F. Hessburg

Jack D. Rogers, Ned B. Klopfenstein, Lori M. Carris, Mee-Sook Kim, Paul J. Zambino, Raini C. Rippy, John R. Goetz III, and Paul F. Hessburg

Washington State University Department of Plant Pathology (1,3,7), USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station (2,4,5,6) and Pacific Northwest Research Station (8)

Forest biologists have long investigated the ecological roles of pathogenic, mycorrhizal, and wood-decay fungi, but key contributions of other fungi and fungus-like organisms (e.g., non-pathogenic ascomycetes, basidiomycetes, zygomycetes, fungi imperfecti, and straminipiles) to forest ecosystems have been largely overlooked. Previously, such fungal species have been inadvertently overlooked because of difficulties in surveying/identification and preoccupation with obvious pathogens, mycorrhizal species, and wood decay fungi. Currently, coupled molecular and morphological characterizations of fungal cultures are allowing the survey of two groups of nonpathogenic, fungal communities that were previously poorly characterized: wood decomposers and root endophytes. These inconspicuous fungal groups may play critical roles in regulating forest response to disturbances.

Fungal decomposers are essential for nutrient recycling, bioremediation, and soil structure formation. They play key roles in balancing fuel deposits and woody residue decomposition, so knowledge of their activity is critical to understanding fire risk due to fuels buildup. In addition, some fungal decomposers strongly compete with root pathogens for woody substrates. Their presence and long-term viability can reduce root disease incidence and severity by direct antagonism or by competition for specific niches. Current studies are identifying fungi associated with decomposition in forest stands in various habitat types, soil types, and under different fertilization regimes. In ongoing surveys of fungi associated with wood decomposition in forest soil, over 1,100 isolates of nonpathogenic fungi from 16 families have been identified; many are in genera having species active in natural biological control of forest diseases. Our results suggest that inconspicuous and generally overlooked fungi are prevalent among the initial colonizers of fresh woody substrates in forest soil. These fungi could be playing important roles in moderating fire and disease threat to forests and facilitating recovery after disturbances.

The ecological roles of endophytic fungi in woody roots are not well understood. Our continuing studies have recovered over 500 unique isolates of endophytic fungi representing approximately 30 genera from living woody roots of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in the Inland Northwest, USA; many belong to genera with species that exhibit relatively high tolerance to soil heating and/or provide known biological control of fungal pathogens or insects. Current studies are underway to determine the ecological roles of these endophytic fungi in various environments, by monitoring their presence in interactions with fire and fuels treatments.

Knowledge of the occurrence and ecological roles of nonpathogenic and nonmycorrhizal fungi could aid prediction and management of forest disturbance regimes, especially under shifting climatic and management scenarios. We synthesize new scientific information to help forest managers understand the role of these inconspicuous fungi in relation to threats to western forests. As far as we are aware, no other programs are underway to inventory or determine the ecological roles of nonpathogenic and nonmycorrhizal fungi in forest ecosystems of the USA.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Ned Klopfenstein
USDA Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
1221 South Main Street
Moscow, ID 83843
208-883-2310
nklopfenstein@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p68

Perceptions, Impacts, Actions, Shared Values and Trust: The Experience of Community Residents in a Fire-Prone Ecosystem

Authored By: G. T. Cvetkovich

Patricia L. Winter and George T. Cvetkovich

USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station and Western Washington University

A series of studies conducted on natural resource management issues surrounding risk to habitat, species, and humans has informed our understanding of the role of perceived similar salient values and trust (Cvetkovich and Winter 2002, 2003, 2004; Cvetkovich Winter and Earle 1995; Winter 2003; Winter and Cvetkovich 2000; Winter and Cvetkovich in press). Trust has continued to be highlighted as an essential element of fire management and communication (Shindler, Brunson and Cheek 2004; Winter, Vogt and Fried 2002; Winter, Vogt and McCaffery 2004) and risk management and communication in general (Covello and others 1986; Frudenberg and Rursh 1994; Johnson 2004; Slovic 1999 and 2000). However, the functions of salient values similarity and trust have not been explored in the context of the experience of residing within a fire prone community.

The risk and impact of fires have been significant on the San Bernardino National Forest. The perceptions of the impact held by community residents living in areas surrounded by the forest are important to understand. Issues of interest include residents’ responses to fire risk, beliefs about personal and agency responsibility to address risk, personal experiences with fire, and stressors associated with living in a fire prone area. These issues are examined in light of perceived shared values with the Forest Service and other community residents, as well as trust.

To examine these issues, 200 residents from fire prone communities surrounding an urban National Forest participated in focus group discussions and completed self-administered surveys. Results demonstrate the key influences that salient values similarity and trust have in perceptions of, and reactions to fire risk, personal actions taken, and responses to management actions. Implications for communication and collaboration, education, and management actions are discussed in light of the role of salient values similarity and trust in a risk environment.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Patricia L. Winter
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Southwest Research Station
4955 Canyon Crest Drive
Riverside, CA 92507
951-680-1557
pwinter@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p97

Probabilistic Risk Models for Multiple Disturbances: An Example of Bark Beetles and Wildfire

Authored By: H. K. Preisler, A. A. Ager, C. McHugh, J. L. Hayes, D. R. Brillinger

Haiganoush K. Preisler, Alan A. Ager, Charles  McHugh, Jane L. Hayes, and David R. Brillinger

USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (1), Pacific Northwest Research Station (2,4), and Rocky Mountain Research Station (3), and University of California Statistics Department (5)

Building probabilistic risk models for highly stochastic forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect epidemics is a challenging problem.  Even more difficult is modeling the synergistic relationships that often exist among disturbances.  In the case of bark beetles and wildfire, of interest is the conditional probabilities of a fire given a beetle outbreak in some prior year, and the probability of of post-fire beetle outbreaks following wildfire. This study used a probabilistic model of wildfire occurrence built by the authors (HKP, DRB) and considers the additional influence of prior bark beetle infestations.  The study used historic data (1980 – 2005) on fire occurrence and bark beetle outbreaks collected in Oregon and Washington, USA.  Spatial data on bark beetle activity was obtained from aerial sketch maps created by the Forest Service Forest Pest Management program.  Historical federal wildland fire occurrence data were obtained from the National Interagency Fire Management Information Database (NIFMID) which included information on the date, location, and size of the fire in addition to fire weather and drought indices The methods employed provide an objective tool for modeling complex hybrid processes generally, and for estimating associated probabilities specifically.

Fire Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Alan Ager
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
1401 Gekeler Lane
La Grande, OR 97850-3368
541-278-3740
aager@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p93

A Multi-Criteria Framework for Producing Local, Regional, and National Insect and Disease Risk Maps

Authored By: F. J. Krist Jr.

Frank J. Krist Jr.

USDA Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team

The construction of the 2005 – 06 National Insect and Disease Risk map, compiled by the USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry Area, Forest Health Protection Unit, resulted in the development of a common GIS-based multi-criteria approach that can account for regional variations in forest health concerns. This framework, utilized by all nine Forest Service regions and 49 states, provides a consistent, repeatable, transparent process through which dynamic spatial and temporal risk assessments can be conducted at various levels to aid in decision making. The national framework consists of a five step process which can be a highly iterative process utilizing input from subject area experts:

1. Identify a list of risk agents and target host species.

2. Identify, rank, and weight criteria that determine the susceptibility (risk of introduction and establishment) and vulnerability (risk of mortality if an agent is established) to each risk agent. In some cases susceptibility to a pest approximates vulnerability and therefore represents risk of tree mortality. This is true for pests such as emerald ash borer and oak wilt.

3. Standardize risk agent criteria values and combine the resultant maps using a weighted overlay(s).

4. Convert modeled values for each risk agent to predicted Basal Area (BA) loss over a 15 year period.

5. Identify regions at risk of encountering a 25% or greater loss of total basal area or volume in the next 15 years. This potentially dynamic threshold was set by the National Risk Map Oversight team for the national risk map product.

Following these five steps models are individually run and dynamically assembled into a National Map on a central server located at the Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) in Fort Collins, Colorado. Regional GIS specialists upload and or build individual models on the FHTET server and reference standard data layers also located in the server environment. Separating data layers from the models that are dependant on them forages an environment that; 1) encourages separate critique and understanding of risk models from input data, 2) allows for continuous improvement of the final map by substituting more rigorously vetted data layers and 3) cultures continuous quality improvement of individual models.

This paper will briefly outline the risk map framework demonstrating how risk maps can be easily constructed at both the local, regional, and national levels using Southern Pine Beetle as an example. Model validation and updating are discussed along with a new ArcGIS toolset that has been developed to allow seamless transfer of GIS technology to resource managers engaged in risk assessments. Lastly, an internet based geospatial portal will be demonstrated which places dynamic risk map products directly in the hands of state, private, and federal resource managers.

Thursday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

Frank J. Krist, Jr.
USDA Forest Service
Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team
2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg. A., Suite 331
Fort Collins, CO 80526-1891
970-295-5845
fkrist@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p66

Risk Analysis and Guidelines for Harvest Activities in Wisconsin Oak Timberlands to Minimize Oak Wilt Threat

Authored By: J. Juzwik, J. Cummings-Carlson, K. Scanlon

Jennifer Juzwik, Jane Cummings-Carlson, and Kyoko Scanlon

USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station (1) and Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources

Wisconsin timberland typed as oak-hickory forest was estimated at 2.9 million acres in 1996.  Growing stock volume for red oak was estimated at 2.4 billion ft3, while select white oak volume was estimated to be 927 million ft3.  Oak wilt, the primary disease of concern to this resource, is widespread in the lower two-thirds of the state.  Harvest activities in oak stands may result in introduction of the disease agent into the stand and/or accelerate intensification of the disease within stands. A numerical risk rating system based on scientific and experience-based knowledge was used to develop a statewide system for oak wilt risk analysis.  Recommendations for timber harvest activities in oak stands were then developed based on the results of the risk analysis.  The analysis and recommendations have been combined in a simple spreadsheet application (MS Excel) allowing the user to obtain specific recommendations based on his/her response to five questions about the stand under consideration.  The query page is linked to a concealed table containing the risk analysis and recommendation matrix.  The intended goal of the system is to provide consistent, state-wide recommendations for harvest activities that will, when applied, minimize spread and impact of oak wilt in Wisconsin’s oak timberlands.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Jennifer Juzwik
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
1561 Lindig Ave.
St. Paul, MN 55108
651-649-5114
jjuzwik@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p94

Spread of an Invasive Plant on Alaska’s Roads and River Networks: A Path Analysis

Authored By: T. L. Wurtz, M. Macander, B. T. Spellman

Tricia L. Wurtz, Matt Macander, and Blaine T. Spellman

USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, ABR Inc.--Environmental Research & Services, and University of Alaska Fairbanks School of Agriculture and Land Resources Management

Alaska has few invasive plants, and most of them are found only along the state’s limited road system.   One of the most-widely distributed invasives in the state, Melilotus alba, or sweetclover, has been sown both as a forage crop and as a roadside stabilization species.  Melilotus has recently been found to have moved from roadsides to the floodplains of at least three glacial rivers.  This species has aggressively colonized the lower Stikine river floodplain, and occurs there in dense, monospecific stands.  It is at an earlier stage of colonization of the Matanuska and Nenana River floodplains as well.   To locate other rivers that may have been colonized, and to determine which rivers might be most at risk for future colonization, we examined the distribution of Melilotus near 120 bridges along 5 of the state’s major highways.  At thirteen bridges, we found Melilotus growing on natural floodplain surfaces; in all thirteen cases we found Melilotus growing in moderate to heavy infestations on the roadside immediately adjacent to the bridge.  In addition, 41 bridges had Melilotus growing on the roadside immediately adjacent to the bridge, but none yet on a natural floodplain surface.  A path analysis of those 54 rivers examined the vulnerability of downstream terrain to invasion, and the location downstream of lands of high conservation significance, such as National Parks and Wildlife Refuges.  Results point to certain bridges and river systems as critical control points for the spread of invasive plants in Alaska; both monitoring and control efforts should be focused at these points.  This path analysis may help prevent the spread of other invasive species from roadsides to river networks in Alaska.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Tricia L. Wurtz
Boreal Ecology Cooperative Research Unit
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
PO Box 756780
Fairbanks, AK 99775-6780
907-474-5994
twurtz@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p99

The Application of Hyperspectral and other Remote Sensing Technologies for the Monitoring and Assessment of Invasive Species

Authored By: J. Ellenwood, A. Lazar, E. Hinkley

Jim Ellenwood, Arpad Lazar, and Everett Hinkley

USDA Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (1,2) and Remote Sensing Applications Center (3)

Introductions of invasive non-indigenous species and the ensuing negative ecological and economic consequences are increasing with escalating global trade.  As global markets expand, the threat of species introductions into new habitats becomes greater.  Tools that allow for the rapid assessment of invasive species need to be refined to allow for the efficient and accurate assessment of impacted resource conditions.  Two recently established invasive insects, Asian Longhorn Beetle and Emerald Ash Borer, were investigated by FHTET utilizing different approaches to map host type and assess the ensuing damage.  A broad scale detection of Asian Longhorn Beetle utilized SPOT V, high-resolution airborne imagery, and traditional aerial photography to map potential host and mortality.  A finer scale approach was utilized for the Emerald Ash Borer that utilized Hyperspectral imagery, high-resolution airborne imagery, and LIDAR.  Each of these projects had encountered a number of technical, procedural, and contractual issues which need to be considered for future applications.  A framework to focus developmental effort to refine the application of existing remotely sensed technologies is proposed.

Monitoring Methods Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:
Jim Ellenwood
USDA Forest Service
FHTET
2150 Centre Ave., Bldg. A, Ste. 331
Fort Collins, CO 80526
970-295-5842
jellenwood@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p108

The Forest Threat Encyclopedia Project

Authored By: H. M. Rauscher, J. M. Pye

Michael H. Rauscher and John M. Pye

USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station

The Forest Threat Encyclopedia Project is using this conference to attract the initial content of an online resource on risk assessment as applied to forests and other wildlands. The encyclopedia will be the sixth on the Forest Encyclopedia Network but is the first to extend the collections spatial scope beyond the Southern U.S. to cover all of North America. Content from case studiy papers will appear in itheir own section, with each paper appearing as a linear sequence of HTML pages. The content from synthesis papers will be rearranged hierarchically to form a logical information architecture that helps visitors navigate through the content to the subject of interest. Early exchange of paper outlines has allowed authors to cross reference and coordinate their content beyond most ordinary proceedings. No single conference can cover all the subjects in this rich and expanding field, but the papers from this conference will form the nucleus for what we hope becomes an ongoing process of expansion and updating of content.

Tuesday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

John M. Pye
Forestry Sciences Laboratory
3041 E. Cornwallis Road
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
919-549-4013
jpye@fs.fed.us

note: oral presentation only

 

Encyclopedia ID: p103

The Role of Road Network Analysis in Assessing Threats and Planning for Threat Reduction

Authored By: M. J. Furniss

Michael J. Furniss

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Road networks are strongly related to most threats facing public forest and rangelands.  Roads route people, vehicles, water, large wood and sediment, pathogens, and invasive propagules. Roads can fragment and connect aquatic and terrestrial habitats in complex ways. The capacity for fuel treatments and fire suppression depend, in part, on the location and condition of roads.

The threats themselves and the capacity to respond to them are strongly related to past and future road networks, so the consideration of threats often must consider roads and their potential and anticipated changes through time. Recent advances in the large-scale analysis of road networks have demonstrated practical approaches to interdisciplinary planning of future road networks that are responsive to modern and projected issues and needs.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Michael J. Furniss
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Corvallis, OR
541-758-7789
mfurniss@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p74

Threat Assessment Using an Integrative Approach of Probabilistic Risk Modeling and Stochastic Programming with an Application to Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks

Authored By: D. Prasodjo, J. Gan, B. A. McCarl

Darmawan Prasodjo, Jianbang Gan, and Bruce A. McCarl

Texas A&M University Department of Agriculture Economics (1,3) and Department of Forest Science (2)

One of the major challenges in assessing the impact of natural threats such as weather extremes, wildfire, and pest/disease outbreaks is how to take into account the stochastic nature of these threats in terms of both time and spatial dimensions and to incorporate both direct and indirect impacts.  Probabilistic risk modeling is an effective tool for risk characterization, and a multiregional and multisectoral stochastic programming model is capable of incorporating spatial uncertainty as well as interregional and intersectoral linkages.  Combining the strengths of these two modeling methods appears to be a promising tool for threat assessment.

This paper will first offer an extensive review of probabilistic risk modeling and stochastic programming and their applications in risk analysis and decision-making under uncertainty.  Their advantages and disadvantages as well as suitability for threat assessment will be discussed.  Drawing on this synthesis, we will then attempt to integrate these two modeling approaches and demonstrate its applicability using the case of the southern pine beetle (SPB), the most detrimental insect of southern pines.  Using the probabilistic modeling approach, the risk of SPB outbreaks will be characterized.  This will provide input (the stochastic component) to the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model--Green-House Gas version (FASOMGH) to simulate the impacts.  FASOMGH is a multiregional, dynamic, price-endogenous, nonlinear programming model of the forestry (including forest and wood processing) and agricultural sectors in the U.S.  Because of its unique features, this model is able to take into account interregional and intersectoral linkages as well as variations in the SPB outbreak risk across time and locations.  The simulation results will in turn offer strategies for mitigating SPB infestations.

This paper will not only describe the modeling approach and demonstrate its applicability in threat assessment, but also offer empirical results on the characterization of SPB outbreak risk, economic impacts of SPB outbreaks under various scenarios (e.g. representing the historical trends and global climate change), and mitigation strategies.  The impact will be measured in terms of output, price, and welfare.  The mitigation options will include species mix, land-use change, salvage harvest, and improved management practices, among others.  The model developed can be applied to assessing the threats of other natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and the empirical findings will provide guidelines for mitigating future SPB damage and supporting healthy forest management.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Darmawan Prasodjo
Agriculture Economics
Texas A&M University
113 Jack K. Williams Administration Bldg.
College Station, TX 77843-2142
979-845-8224
dprasodjo@ag.tamu.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p95

Threats to Private Forest Land in the USA

Authored By: S. M. Stein, R. E. McRoberts

Susan M. Stein and Ronald E. McRoberts

USDA Forest Service Cooperative Forestry Staff (1) and North Central Research Station (2)

The Forests on the Edge project, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, has conducted a comprehensive, national assessment of the contributions of private forest land to water quality and timber production and an assessment of the threats to these lands due to urbanization, fire, and ozone.  The objective has been to identify and rank watersheds across the USA with respect to their water quality and timber contributions and with respect to the threats to their continuing and future contributions.  The project objective is particularly relevant in the context of the increasing emphasis on forest sustainability and the Montreal Process criteria and indicators.  For example, Montreal Process Criterion 2, Maintenance of the Productive Capacity of Forest Ecosystems, includes the area of productive forest land as an indicator, and Criterion 4, Conservation of Soil and Water Resources, includes area of forest land managed for watershed protection functions as an indicator.  The project methodology has emphasized construction of nationally consistent maps of relevant natural resource attributes and the use of geographic information system techniques to integrate map information. 

The presentation focuses on two aspects of the study: first, a synthesis of the methodological lessons learned, and second, specific spatial results.  First, because the study is national in scope, construction of nationally consistent maps was crucial.  This requirement necessitated locating such maps in a format that could be easily imported for GIS analyses.  If maps were not available, then it was necessary to construct them from data having the scope, breadth, consistency, and uniformity necessary for the application.  In most cases, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service was the only source of such data.  Because of time and resource limitations, map construction entailed imputing sample means to spatially regular polygons.  Multiple GIS techniques for integrating maps depicting a combination of natural resource, political, and abiotic attributes were considered with the simple GIS intersection technique being selected.  Finally, comments are provided on the efforts necessary to coordinate the cross-agency, multiple location effort. 

The second aspect addresses the specific spatial assessment results.  The analyses suggest the possibility of serious threats to contributions of private forest land to water quality from urbanization in the Southeast and New England and threats to timber production from urbanization in the Southeast and New England, from fire in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest, and from ozone in the mid-Atlantic region.

Land Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Susan M. Stein
Cooperative Forestry Staff
USDA Forest Service
Mail Stop 1123
Washington, DC 20250
202-205-0837
sstein@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p64

Using Historical Imagery to Monitor and Assess Threats over Time

Authored By: D. Evans

Don Evans

USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing Applications Center

Remote sensing provides perhaps the best means to assess changes over time.  In particular, aerial photography provides an invaluable record of land use and land cover conditions—frequently dating back to the 1930’s!  Most forests have repeat photography on approximately a ten year cycle.  This rich photo record can indicate changing threat conditions thru time including threats such as: insect damage, fuels buildup, unmanaged off-highway vehicle use, and loss of open space. 

We’ve long recognized and valued the quality information content of photos; however, we’ve also long struggled with how to get our photos into our GIS.  Current technologies have converged within the Forest Service that allow us to get our photos into a GIS rather easily.  Within the GIS we can evaluate, analyze and document important changes.

This paper discusses historical photo data sources, software solutions and techniques for historical photo orthocorrection—along with examples of using historical imagery to document selected changing threat levels over time in several locations.

The methods described in this paper are available in all areas and provide the most consistent and objective method for detecting, assessing and monitoring changes through time.

Monitoring Methods Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Don Evans
USDA Forest Service
Remote Sensing Applications Center
2222 West 2300 South
Salt Lake City, UT 84119
801-975-3757
dtevans@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p77

Utilizing Remotely Sensed Data and Analytical Techniques in Post-Katrina Mississippi to Develop Storm Damage and Risk Assessment Models

Authored By: P. A. Glass, K. L. Belli, C. A. Collins, D. L. Evans, H. A. Londo

Curtis A. Collins, David L. Evans, H. Alexis Londo, Patrick A. Glass, and Keith L. Belli

Mississippi State University College of Forest Resources (1 and 3), Mississippi State University College of Forest Resources (2 and 5), and Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory (4)

In the wake of the landfall and passage of hurricane Katrina through South Mississippi on August 29, 2005, thousands of hectares of forestland were damaged or destroyed prompting massive salvage, cleanup, and assessment tasks.  An initial assessment by the Mississippi Forestry Commission estimated that over one billion dollars in raw wood material was downed by the storm with county-level damaged forest percentages ranging from 60% to 50% across Mississippis three coastal counties.  While this assessment was rapidly performed through aerial viewing using expert approximation, a more definitive and continuous damage assessment model was sought, leading to the acquisition and analysis of remotely sensed data taken before and after hurricane Katrina.  By mapping this impact in a more accurate and continuous form, future economic and environmental policies can be influenced by the information produced so that the mitigation of present and future losses, due, for example, to the weakened state of residual forests (e.g., insects, fires, and secondary storm), can occur in an adequate manner.  Beyond this characterization of post-Katrina resource damage, model development to predict the likely scope and severity of damage from future hurricanes, given the state of the forest resources that may be impacted, will also be explored.

In employing remotely sensed data to better grasp the damage inflicted by Katrina, low (250 - 500 m resolution), moderate (56 - 30 m resolution), and high (4 - 0.3 m resolution) resolution data were acquired from spaceborne and airborne platforms in panchromatic and MultiSpectral (MS) formats.  With regard to the MS data, bands were captured across the three visible (blue, green, and red) as well as from various sections of the near- and mid-infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum.  In addition to these data, transformed data such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) layers were also to be used as variables in the modeling process.

In preliminary work, moderate resolution (56 m) MS data transformed into NDMI layers was used in a strata definition exercise for allocating damaged assessment plots in the field.  This was done by heuristically setting an NDMI threshold value that appeared to visually fit the expected distribution of damaged forest areas by timber type using state-wide forest type and age thematics that were created previously for the Mississippi Institute for Forest Inventory (MIFI).  With these rough damaged and undamaged areas delineated, points were randomly allocated so that fifth-acre (0.08 ha) plots could be sampled to determine measured damage levels in the field.  This measurement process is presently underway through support from MIFI.

Storm track, speed, and wind data (both from FEMA using their HAZUS software, and from NOAAs Hurricane Research Center) were also available for Katrina.  From storm track and speed data it is expected that wind direction, duration, and stability can be derived, or at least accounted for, while wind data from FEMA and NOAA, in both sustained and gust forms, can provide for valuable predictive variables alone.  Additional information, such as storm surge extent, is presently being sought to serve as another possible variable of interest related to current damage, not to mention future effects from the introduction of salt into freshwater environments.

Although field sampling of storm damage is in process, interpretation of high resolution imagery was performed yielding damage classification as well as crown closure differences between pre- and post-storm imagery in GIS-generated fifth-acre (0.08 ha) plots, which were intended to match field sampling plots.  The purpose here was to create a bank of training and validation data for use in the model construction and testing phases of this project.

The modeling of more complex predicted damage estimates is presently being investigated using various maximum likelihood and least-squares fitting procedures in the hopes that categorical or continuous values may be derived using storm attribute and remotely sensed data.  Modeling results are expected to be good as the rough mapping results performed using the moderate resolution NDMI procedure outlined above appeared visually correlated with anticipated damage regions.  In fact, photo-interpretive class comparisons show ~71% agreement between located and interpreted photo plots and damage/undamaged classed forested pixels.  The hope is that with more repeatable, less interpretative modeling procedures, more consistent and precise results can be obtained.

Air and Water Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Curtis A. Collins
Box 9681
Mississippi State, MS 39762
662-325-3540
ccollins@larsonmcgowin.com

 

Encyclopedia ID: p100

A National System for Rapid Detection and Assessment of Severe Disturbances in Forestlands

Authored By: G. Moisen, R. L. Czaplewski, K. Brewer, S. Healey

Gretchen Moisen, Raymond L. Czaplewski, Ken Brewer, Sean Healey

USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station (1,2,4) and Remote Sensing Applications Center (3)

Continuous improvement in risk assessment requires monitoring to directly detect and assess the extent and severity of realized disturbances relative to the predicted risk of those disturbances. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, conducted by the Research and Development branch of the USDA Forest Service, is well suited for monitoring all US forestlands. FIA measures over 160,000 forested field plots that are systematically distributed approximately every 5-km (1 plot per 2,400-ha). Plots uniformly cover all public and private lands. This sampling intensity often permits statistically reliable assessments for analysis-areas as small as 1-million acres. Tree- and plot-level conditions are carefully measured in the field within each of four 0.017-ha sub-plots that cover a 0.4-ha field plot.  Seven to 10 years are required to completely re-measure all 160,000 field plots in the USA. These spatial and temporal scales are sufficient to monitor slowly-evolving disturbances that are finely-distributed over large areas (e.g., climate change). However, this standard FIA protocol is not well suited for monitoring rapid and coarse-grained changes, such as wildfires, hurricanes and ice storms. Using a combination of remote sensing technologies and an augmented sampling frame, FIA is developing the capability to rapidly detect and assess changes in US forests. Within a few days after a disturbance, areas impacted by a disturbance are classified into different severity levels with coarse-scale remote sensing (e.g., MODIS, Doppler radar) or risk assessments. Estimates of forest resources potentially affected within each severity class are produced using existing FIA plot data. Within a few months, improved estimates of forest resources likely affected are obtained by applying disturbance-specific models (built with historic disturbance data) to finer resolution imagery. Ultimately, direct measurements of forest conditions using multi-stage and/or multi-phase sampling with large-scale aerial photography and/or field crews will yield the best estimates of forest resources actually affected, but will require a new post-disturbance data collection effort. This rapid response system might be relevant for monitoring invasive species, pests, diseases and conversion in land uses.

Monitoring Methods Session - Tuesday Afternoon

corresonding author:

Raymond L. Czaplewski
USDA Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg. A
Fort Collins, CO 80526
970-295-5973
rczaplewski@fs.fed.us

note: oral presentation only


 

 

Encyclopedia ID: p101

Vulnerability to Wind Damage in Maine Forests

Authored By: T. Perry, J. S. Wilson

Thomas Perry and Jeremy S. Wilson

University of Maine Department of Forest Management

Wind damage influences forest management throughout the world and the forests of Maine provide no exception. Extensive blow down has been described after wind events during the late 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries. Chronic more localized events impact forests throughout the region on a yearly basis. Maine forests contain a considerable amount of red spruce and balsam fir, tree species that are considered susceptible to wind damage. The vulnerability of Maine forests to wind damage may increase in the future as areas regenerated after a 1970’s and 1980’s era spruce budworm outbreak mature. In addition, partial removals currently account for over 74 % of the area harvested annually in the state. A GIS-based model of wind damage vulnerability that reflects topographic exposure, soil conditions, and stand characteristics has been developed and generically calibrated using information from the wind damage literature. To assess and refine the model we will compare predicted vulnerability to a large database of forest stands from northern and western Maine that includes information about recent wind damage. The refined model will be used in conjunction with forest growth simulators to assess the implications of alternative management approaches on future vulnerability to wind damage. In particular, we are investigating how vulnerability changes with greater reliance on partial harvesting techniques and the resulting homogenization of stand structures across the landscape.

Air and Water Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Jeremy S. Wilson
Department of Forest Management
University of Maine
5755 Nutting Hall
Orono, ME 04473
Jeremy_Wilson@umenfa.maine.edu

 

Encyclopedia ID: p71

A Spatial Model for Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Swiss Needle Cast Disease Severity in the Pacific Northwest

Authored By: J. K. Stone, L. B. Coop, D. K. Manter

Jeffrey K. Stone, Leonard B. Coop, and Daniel K. Manter

Oregon State University Department of Botany and Plant Pathology (1,2) and USDA-ARS Soil-Plant-Nutrient Research Unit

Swiss needle cast disease of Douglas-fir is caused by the ascomycete fungus Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii.  Symptoms of the disease are foliage chlorosis and premature needle abscission due to occlusion of stomata by the ascocarps of the pathogen, resulting in impaired needle gas exchange.  Severe defoliation and growth losses of 20-50% due to Swiss needle cast have been reported for about 150,000 ha of Douglas-fir plantations in western Oregon since 1996.  Because the physiological effects of the disease (impaired CO2 uptake and photosynthesis) are quantitatively related to the abundance of the pathogen (proportion of stomata occluded by ascocarps), pathogen abundance is directly related to disease and is a suitable response variable for assessing effects of climatic factors on disease.  Climate factors most highly correlated with pathogen abundance are winter temperature and spring leaf wetness, and a model for prediction of disease severity based on these factors accounts for 77% and 78% of the variation in one- and two-year-old needles, respectively, for western Oregon sites.  A trend of increasing temperatures during the winter months of 0.2-0.4 °C and increasing spring precipitation of 0.7-1.5 cm per decade since 1970 suggests that regional climate trends are influencing the current distribution and severity of Swiss needle cast disease.  Forecasts of climate change in the Pacific Northwest region predict continued increases in temperatures during winter months of about 0.4 °C per decade through 2050, suggesting that the severity and distribution of Swiss needle cast is likely to increase in the coming decades as a result of climate change, with significant consequences for Pacific Northwest forests.  A climate-based disease prediction model is being developed as an online, interactive tool that can be used to guide further research, conduct extended model validations, perform climate change scenario analyses, and eventually to provide short and long term disease risk predictions and management cost/benefit analyses.  The model will be useful for prediction of disease development trends under different climate change scenarios and temporal scales.

Exotic Pests Session - Tuesday Afternoon
[note that Swiss needle cast disease is not an introduced pest in the Pacific Northwest, it is native there]

corresponding author:

Jeffrey K. Stone
Department of Botany and Plant Pathology
Oregon State University
Cordley Hall 2082
Corvallis, OR 97331-2902
stonej@science.oregonstate.edu


 

 

Encyclopedia ID: p81

Air Pollution Increases Forest Susceptibility to Wildfires in Southern California

Authored By:

N.E. Grulke, R.A. Minnich, T. Paine, A. Dunn, and D. Chavez

USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station (1,5)
University of California Department of Geography (2) and Department of Entomology (3)
USDA Forest Service San Bernardino National Forest (4)


Many factors increase susceptibility of forests to wildfire in California. Among them are increases in human population, changes in land use, increased fire starts, fire suppression, and frequent droughts. These factors have been exacerbating forest susceptibility to wildfires over the last century in southern California. Here we report on the significant role that air pollution has on increasing forest susceptibility to wildfires. Air pollution, specifically ozone and wet and dry deposition of nitrogenous compounds from fossil fuel combustion, has significantly increased since industrialization of the region after WWII. Ozone and elevated nitrogen deposition cause specific changes in forest tree carbon, nitrogen, and water balance that enhance individual tree susceptibility to drought, bark beetle attack, and combined, and these changes contribute to whole ecosystem susceptibility to wildfire. For example, elevated O3 and N deposition increase leaf turnover rates, N content of leaf litter, and decrease decomposability of litter. Uncharacteristically deep litter layers develop in mixed conifer forests affected by air pollutants. Elevated O3 and N deposition decrease the proportion of whole tree biomass in foliage and roots, the latter effect increasing tree susceptibility to drought and beetle attack. Because both foliar and root mass is compromised, overwinter carbohydrates are stored in the bole, perhaps contributing to increased beetle fecundity. Elevated O3 increases drought stress by significantly reducing plant control of water loss. The resulting increase in canopy transpiration, combined with [O3 + N deposition]-induced decreases in root mass significantly increase tree susceptibility to drought stress, and when additionally combined with increased bole carbohydrates, contribute to success of bark beetle attack. Phenomenological and experimental evidence is presented to support the role of these factors contributing to the susceptibility of forests to wildfire in southern California.

Native Pests Session - Wednesday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Nancy E. Grulke
Pacific Southwest Research Station
4955 Canyon Crest Drive
Riverside, CA 92507
951-680-1556
ngrulke@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p106

An Actuarial Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk

Authored By: A. A. Ager, M. Finney

Alan Ager and Mark Finney

USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station and Rocky Mountain Research StationA number of wildfire risk systems have been developed in recent years to provide land managers with tools to examine potential wildfire impacts.  However, few of these efforts use well-established concepts and definitions of risk from the actuarial sciences, and none are sufficiently detailed for watershed-scale fuels treatment planning.  In the context of wildfire, risk is the expected loss from a fire, calculated as the product of (1) probability of a fire at a specific intensity and location, and (2) the resulting financial or ecological damage.  The process of wildfire risk assessment is concerned with changes in expected loss in response to fuel treatments, suppression,  structure improvements, and assumptions about fire weather.  We developed a wildfire risk model based on the expected loss concept and tested it on 16,000 ha wildland-urban interface in Eastern Oregon.  The modeling approach was designed to be compatible with ongoing wildfire risk mitigation projects on federal lands in terms of resolution and data requirements.  Conditional wildfire probabilities were calculated by simulating large numbers of wildfires via  a mechanistic wildfire spread model.  Fire weather was simulated using Monte Carlo methods and historical weather data.  A financial loss function used flame length at each pixel to determine the fire effects on standing timber volumes and residential structures.  We also considered the positive value of low intensity wildfire in terms of reducing fuel loads and future wildfire intensity.  We simulated a range of fuel treatment alternatives and examined the net change in expected loss. The results demonstrated the importance of considering both the probability of a disturbance and the potential loss in a risk assessment, especially for spatially heterogeneous disturbances like fire.  Future work will include the development of loss functions for other resources of concern.  Our work advances the application of actuarial science to wildfire risk management and fuels treatment planning on Federally-managed lands.

Wednesday Morning Plenary

corresponding author:

Alan Ager
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
1401 Gekeler Lane
La Grande, OR 97850-3368
541-278-3740
aager@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p91

An Aquatic Multi-Scale Assessment and Planning “Framework”

Authored By: K. Overton

Kerry Overton

USDA Forest Service R1/R4/RMRS Technology Transfer Program

A web-based decision support tool was developed to assist aquatic practitioners in managing fisheries and watershed information.  The Framework was designed to support resource assessments and planning efforts from the broad scale to the fine scale, document procedures, and link directly to relevant research. The Framework is a hierarchical-hyperlinked template that is readily updateable. The Framework products consist of tabular and spatial displays of:  1) current aquatic resource condition and distribution; 2) desired aquatic resource future conditions; 3) aquatic resource risks and threats; 4) analysis approaches; 5) a conservation & restoration strategy; and, 6) a monitoring, inventory and research strategy.  The Framework provides a logical template for developing, tracking and documenting aquatic information; hierarchical for summarizing available information at various scales associated with universally coded true watersheds (e.g. basin, subbasin, watershed, subwatershed); transparent and defensible; links management questions and data to best available science and procedures; and, helps define and display information assumptions and gaps.  Different analysis approaches with supporting science or case studies are directly linked and downloadable from the Framework (e.g. extinction risk matrix table, influence diagrams, probabilistic networks). The Framework is designed to support USFS Regional species status overviews, subbasin assessments, watershed analysis, cumulative effects assessments, and project NEPA and consultation. Spatially explicit outputs are used to define and display risks and threats associated with fish, fish habitats, stream-riparian environments and watershed conditions. Broad scale summaries provide context for fine scale projects to help prioritize management actions for addressing risks and threats. The transparent design helps step down data and priorities for field unit implementation. The Framework is currently being utilized to support the aquatic portion of Forest Plan Revision in Region 1 and 4, and in implementing completed Forest plans.

Biodiversity Session - Thursday Afternoon

corresponding author:

Kerry Overton
Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab
322 E Front St., Suite 401
Boise, ID 83702
208-373-4357
koverton@fs.fed.us

 

Encyclopedia ID: p87